Methanol ** rises hard to break through the 2860-2880 area

Since the beginning of the month, the current round of strong methanol price increase has mainly been due to the short-term main short-term departure from the venue, and it is not that funds have actively pushed up.

Wednesday's methanol 1301301 contract lasted for nearly two weeks, but above 2800, its upward momentum has weakened significantly compared with the previous period.

Since the beginning of the month, the current round of strong methanol price increase has mainly been due to the short-term main short-term departure from the venue, and it is not that funds have actively pushed up. Although from the perspective of the methanol industry chain, spot prices and downstream demand are all positive for the price of methanol, but due to the heavy pressure area of ​​2860-2880, which suppresses the 1301 contract for as long as three months, the quantity can continue to weaken. It is difficult to break through the region in the background price. The author believes that the recent methanol price will be dominated by high oscillations.

First, the impact of monetary easing policy will gradually fade Although the impact of the QE3 launch last Friday, the price limit of methanol, but this is only a short-term boost, and can not form a continuous driving force. Using historical data to analyze the impact of quantitative easing policies on the trend of chemical products, we can see that, whether it is the introduction of QE1 or QE2, short-term crude oil prices have risen, but followed by a wave of declines. The main reason is that before the introduction of the policy, the market has formed a certain expectation for it, and when it is actually launched, it is good to honor it and the good will become bad. And from QE1, QE2 to QE3, the promotion of loose policies on commodities has gradually diminished. After QE3 was formally introduced last week, the price of oil only lasted for two trading days. On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan announced an expansion of asset purchases by 10 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen, and canceled the minimum rate for buying Japanese government bonds. However, from the side of the disk, the price of bulk commodities has been limited. The author believes that without geopolitical emergencies, the weaker oil price in the later period is a high probability event, which will drag down the price of methanol.

Second, the spot market price is strong for nearly a month, 1301 contract out of a "V"-shaped trend, fluctuations are extremely severe, but the spot market price is basically stable, Jiangsu tank price has always been above 2780 yuan / ton. In the early fall of **, the spot price was abnormally strong, and in the recent market rise, the spot price of methanol also followed the rise. The fact that the spot price does not follow the upward trend shows that the spot market does not have a strong willingness to lower the price and ship, and is optimistic about the market outlook.

In the import market, affected by the suspension of imports of Iranian methanol from some domestic importers, and the increase in the domestic trade market, domestic buyers began to regain confidence in the market and their enquiry enthusiasm increased significantly. At the same time, the seller also actively pushed up prices, and the price of imported methanol rose. Domestically, the operating rate of the 40 major methanol companies continued to decline in recent weeks and fell to 66% last week. The decline in the operating rate of enterprises also supports the spot price of methanol.

Third, the downstream demand improvement is limited, but the strong price of formaldehyde in product prices, due to the impact of rising raw material methanol prices, last week, the price of formaldehyde in eastern China has risen. Due to the general market demand for downstream sheet metal, the operating rate of formaldehyde is not much different from the previous period. In terms of glacial acetic acid, affected by the temporary parking of Shanghai Wujing 2# device and Thorpe's 400,000 tons/year installation, the glacial acetic acid industry operating rate dropped by 2 percentage points to 51% last week. Due to the impact of supply, local suppliers have pushed up their intentions. On Friday, the price of canned glacial acetic acid in East China rose by RMB 50/t from the previous period. In terms of dimethyl ether, downstream demand is relatively stable, and production in some areas has been restored. According to CBI statistics, the national dimethyl ether utilization rate was 33.4% last week, which was flat compared with the previous period. As the market for liquefied gas continues to rise slowly, the market price of dimethyl ether in East China has also recently risen. The Changtai factory price in Zhangjiagang has risen for three consecutive trading days. On the whole, although the operating rate of methanol downstream products did not change much from the previous period, the price has risen. The downstream prices have risen to the bullish methanol price.