The photovoltaic war between China and Europe and the United States has risen from the enterprise to the country, and it has been burning for half a year. With the day before, China announced an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation on European solar products. The result of this "double loss" in the fierce battle seems to have been doomed.
Before the US Department of Commerce announced the final result of China's PV “double-reverseâ€, China's PV manufacturers had already lost their battles. A research report released by the US investment agency Maxim Group said that the debt of China's top 10 solar companies totaled $17.5 billion (about 111.4 billion yuan), and the entire industry is close to bankruptcy. On October 10th, the announcement of the "double anti-" in the United States was just a matter of fueling the fire and making it worse.
But the war is far from over. When manufacturers are still waiting for the EU's anti-dumping investigation results, China is the first to fight back. As a result, German PV companies have suffered the same as Chinese manufacturers. On the same day, the stock prices of several solar energy companies in Germany fell.
As the world's largest PV market, the EU's sales are 10 times larger than the US. If China's move leads the EU's investigation results to the most severe direction, then once this market is completely shut down, it is undoubtedly the Chinese manufacturer. The most deadly blow. For European PV companies, the business of exporting China's polysilicon and machinery and equipment is also sinister.
This is a war of attrition without a winner.
Dilemma triggers PV market reorganization
Although the current war situation is fierce, but for the future of the photovoltaic industry, the industry is still optimistic. At the China International Solar Summit held in Datong, Shanxi, from October 26th to 27th, Charles Gay, president of Solar Energy, the world's largest manufacturer of photovoltaic equipment, said in an interview. There is no doubt that solar energy is the most ideal renewable energy source. The current dilemma is the normal fluctuation under the law of the market.†“Solar energy is the most likely source of energy in all renewable energy sources in the futureâ€, Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences Professor Xu Honghua, deputy director of the institute, said.
“The current predicament is that most companies do not make correct predictions about the speed of market development. When we should see, at the same time, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the global terminal market is still increasing. This year, the installation of solar photovoltaics around the world is about 31GW. Last year was 27GW," Charles said. But last year, China's photovoltaic production capacity exceeded 40GW, such a huge gap will naturally lead to profound industry turmoil.
Astor is the fifth largest solar photovoltaic company in the world, engaged in the design and installation of solar power system. Its senior manager, Yu Han, was transferred from Canada to Canada for business last month. She said, “Building a photovoltaic in China. The power station, approval, formalities, etc., must be 3 to 4 years at the earliest. The result is that the production is continuous and the digestion speed is very slow. The application link is only three years behind the production stage. This will naturally lead to traffic jams and roads in the front chain of the industrial chain."
Since it is ultimately a business, it is not only technology that determines the survival of PV companies, but also must have sufficient judgment and foresight on the market. At this point, due to the help of the Chinese government, the final result proves that, at the beginning, all The manufacturers are blindly optimistic. Under the interest-driven and policy-enhancing, companies that understand photovoltaics and do not understand photovoltaics are flocking to the market, and they are installed and shipped at the speed of the British Super League. In 2008, there were less than 100 PV companies in China, and by the end of 2011 it had expanded to more than 500. The result now is that no company can make money by selling batteries.
Not only is the company blindly following the trend, Xu Honghua believes that part of the current predicament is the government-led mistakes. Market demand is the fundamental driving force for industrial development. To guide the photovoltaic industry to develop in a healthy and healthy way, policies should not only favor the production of batteries and components, but should open up the application market and carry out innovation at the application level, such as power station construction, as a policy. Leading direction. "The solar industry itself has no problems. The problem is that it relies too much on a single market and relies on government regulation," Xu Honghua said.
When a certain industry has a collective mourning, should the government help each other? How to help? It has always been a matter of debate.
Milan Nitzschke, chairman of the EU ProSun, a group of more than 20 European PV companies filed a complaint with the European Union on September 25, accusing China's PV companies of receiving government subsidies and demanding punitive import tariffs on their products. He believes that more than 20 European PV companies were in bankruptcy in 2012. In China, most Chinese PV companies have already gone bankrupt without endless government subsidies.
The government should indeed rescue the market, but the rescue should not be a certain enterprise, but the entire application market. Overcapacity is not the only reason for the current domestic manufacturers of photovoltaics to be ruined. Over-reliance on foreign markets is the direct cause of the current misery. At present, 90% of China's photovoltaic products are exported abroad.
Mueller Sven-Uwe, head of renewable energy projects at the German International Cooperation Agency, and Charles believe that the global solar market's territory will begin to restructure after the elimination of substantial subsidies in Europe. The former consumer market was dominated by Germany and Italy, which stimulated market development through the implementation of feed-in tariff subsidies. When these governments canceled support, the map of the world solar consumer market will be rewritten by economic laws. Those areas where solar energy is most economically viable will become the main market, such as California, USA; in addition, the growth of electricity demand in China and India is also the emerging market for the solar industry in the future. "There are still some countries in the world that import diesel fuel for power generation, such as Thailand, the Philippines, etc. These countries are the markets that the solar industry should aim at immediately," Muller said.
Distributed Photovoltaics: The only dawn in the dark
Why is the domestic market of photovoltaics unable to open? China's PV installed capacity in 2011 was 2.9GW, although it was 500% higher than that in 2010, but for China's total installed capacity of one billion, the proportion of installed photovoltaic power generation is small (0.27%). . Many people think that because the cost of photovoltaic power generation is still too high. At present, the on-grid electricity price of China's thermal power generation is roughly 0.4 yuan / kWh. In contrast, the average on-grid electricity price of domestic photovoltaics is still more than doubled.
However, Zou Gang, chief technology officer of Applied Materials China, believes that the cost of photovoltaic power generation is close, and even in some places it is lower than the price of traditional thermal power. It is currently at a turning point in the massive outbreak of solar power generation. Around 2018, traditional energy and new energy can reach parity. Charles said that in his hometown, California, especially in the summer, the price of household electricity is 38 cents per degree, while solar power can achieve 12 cents per kilowatt-hour, and the price is less than one-third of the traditional electricity price. .
The reason for this is that it is not unrelated to the construction of photovoltaic power plants in China and the grid-connected standards for photovoltaic power generation.
Traditional thermal power companies will often set up factories in the suburbs because of low land prices and other factors, which is the extension of the power supply circle centered on large power stations. Therefore, large power plants need to spend large sums of money on the development of the grid to deliver the electricity generated to these industrial enterprises. Usually 60% of the investment cost is used for power generation, and 40% of the cost is used for grid erection and power transmission. The advantage of solar energy is that it can be distributed. The distributed solar photovoltaic power station built by the nearest user can solve the problem of high transmission cost of the power grid, and can minimize the energy loss and the economy is very obvious. Therefore, solar photovoltaic is not only the best complement to the existing centralized central power grid structure, but also has an economic effect because it does not require large-scale renovation of existing facilities.
In September, the Notice of the National Energy Administration on Declaring a Large-Scale Application Demonstration Zone for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation announced that the distributed grid-connected capacity will increase from 10GW to 15GW in 2015, which will become a powerful lever to shake the domestic PV application market. . Moreover, just as China announced a dumping investigation on EU PV products, the State Grid Corporation has finally opened a “green light†to the photovoltaic industry that has been plagued by “connection difficulties†for many years, announcing that from November 1st, the country The grid company will provide free full-time grid-connected services for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects that meet the conditions – this may be the only glimmer of light in the current black-cloud crisis.
Once the cost of photovoltaic power generation drops significantly, its attractiveness in return on investment will quickly call for the injection of large amounts of capital. The market potential will provide sufficient incentives for corporate investment, especially in the eastern regions where electricity prices are higher. According to current terminal electricity prices, the return on investment for building distributed photovoltaic power plants can reach 10%. The vast market will also encourage innovation in new energy technologies. The further development of solar energy mainly depends on technological progress. China has a large and relatively low-cost R&D team. The research and development cost of new energy products should be lower than that of developed countries in Europe and America.
If there is still a positive side of the US-European “double-reverse†on China's PV industry, it is to force the government to re-examine the PV development strategy and planning, and force enterprises to better grasp market risks.
At the same time, companies are strengthening their investment in research and development, which is also the key to finally pulling the industry out of the mud. Xu Honghua believes that
China's photovoltaic industry has been the world's number one for five consecutive years, but other countries are doing laboratory research and development, establishing standards and norms, and then doing industry; but we lack these foundations. At the enterprise level, continuous accumulation and innovation are the most critical core.
Trina Solar's chief scientist, Pierre Wellington, said that the PV price that consumers can accept will stabilize in 2017-2019, when the global PV application market will grow rapidly. Well, before that, perhaps, as Charles has been rushing to scream – let people know about solar energy and popularize solar knowledge – this is the most important.
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