PV module exports may usher in a new wave of opportunities

When the Germans heard the winds to reduce subsidies for solar energy at the end of last year, many domestic enterprises had squeezed their sweat, but it was not until the beginning of July this year that the German government finally finalized the policy. “The German government’s delay in the reduction of solar subsidies has dragged down China’s PV module exports in the first half of the year,” said Jiang Qian, chief researcher of CIC’s consultancy energy industry, on the Economic Information Daily. Jiang Qian said, "If Italy follows the follow-up of Germany in policy changes, then China's PV industry export situation may usher in new growth."

Jiang Qian pointed out that the export data of China's photovoltaic industry has not yet come out in the first half of the year. However, if enterprises are taken as an example, only a solar energy enterprise in Hebei Jingao Solar will exceed 509 MW in the first half of this year with more than 580 megawatts of shipments. “This is not just a performance of a company that reflects the strong growth in the entire industry.” Jiang Qian said that a recent data from foreign analysts showed that the domestic five leading PV companies only shipped in the first quarter. It accounts for about 28% of global shipments during the same period.

According to last year's data, China's overall domestic solar energy production is 4,300 megawatts, while the installed capacity is only 150 megawatts. More than 95% of the photovoltaic industry's development is dependent on exports. Among them, 85% are exported to European and American markets.

However, Jiang Qian believes that the downward adjustment of subsidies has greatly stimulated domestic investment in Germany. In fact, since January, there has been a wave of rushing to install solar units in Germany until the German government finalized the policy in early July. In addition, Germany is still in a recovery period after the financial crisis, making Chinese products significantly popular, so domestic PV production will increase by more than 100%.

Since the beginning of July, the relevant policies of the German government have finally been introduced. The solar subsidy reduction for the project started after July 1 was reduced by 3 percentage points compared with the original plan, including subsidies for solar equipment built on rooftops, open spaces and garbage dumps or military training grounds, which were reduced by 16% and 15 respectively. % and 11% were reduced by 13%, 12% and 8%. In the second stage, the solar subsidy for the projects started after September 30 was reduced by 3 percentage points as originally planned.

Jiang Qian believes that although the subsidy is lowered, but unlike Spain's sudden reduction in subsidies, Germany has adopted a gradual decline, so it will not lead to an instantaneous shrinkage of the market, and the yield will be guaranteed. "Of course, the decline in subsidy quota will definitely affect the investment enthusiasm of some people," he said. "The rumors that Italy will also begin to discuss the adjustment of its solar subsidy policy in October. If they adopt the same gradual reduction method, then the policy Before the introduction, the phenomenon of rushing to install will still drive the demand for PV module imports to a certain extent."

Although China's annual output of photovoltaic cells has leapt to the top in the world, it has not ranked in the world application market for a long time. In 2009, China ranked among the top ten PV markets in the world for the first time. According to data from the China Industry Association and government agencies, the size of China's PV market in 2009 was about 160,000 kilowatts. But this figure is still far from the goal of 20 million kilowatts that China wants to achieve in 2020.

Jiang Qian said that before 2008, the photovoltaic industry was a high-profit industry. This led to many investors and companies in China at the time. With the further opening of the domestic market, the industry has become saturated, even relatively surplus. Therefore, the country is constantly raising the threshold of this industry, and trying to further understand the development of the entire industry through tendering. "In the future, more companies may enter the downstream industry, establish power stations, etc. The entire photovoltaic manufacturing industry will also face certain optimization adjustments. The urgent task of China's photovoltaic industry is to firmly control the core technology to ensure quality, not just quantity. ."He says.

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