Sino-US Trade War Observations - Keeping the Strategy Clear and Facing the Challenge

The US government recently announced a 25% tariff on China's $34 billion in goods. After China's reciprocal counter-measure, the trade friction between China and the United States has become a trade war, which is basically no longer a controversial issue. It is. For China, as the saying goes...

The US government recently announced a 25% tariff on China’s $34 billion in goods. After China’s reciprocal counter-measure, the trade friction between China and the United States has become a trade war, which is basically no longer a controversial issue. .

For China, as the saying goes, it is going to rain, the mother wants to marry, and the subjective good wishes can't stop the Sino-US trade war. In this great era, observing this round of Sino-US trade war is extremely rare for understanding the strategic direction of future Sino-US relations. Judging from a relatively long period of time, this trade war may be just the beginning of a new era in Sino-US relations. The really arduous test is far from coming. Observing and clarifying some misunderstandings in the country after the trade war has helped us to clear the source and see the truth and nature of the trade war, and then take the appropriate countermeasures.

On July 25th, US President Trump and President of the European Commission to China, Juncker, issued a joint statement with the theme of "US-Europe/Japan/US-European handshake and zero-tariff free trade zone. China is facing unprecedented isolation/deterioration The post, such as a mudslide, swept through China's self-media social platform and quickly spread to some traditional media network platforms, and within 24 hours has almost formed a raging momentum of the earth.

In sharp contrast to this, from the moment of reaching an agreement, the European and American media have adopted a diametrically opposite reservation, suspicious or even negative or denial attitude, considering whether it is from industrial structure, interest appeal, or negotiation decision. In terms of institutional structure and other aspects, Trump-Junker’s statement is more of a symbolic and principled political statement, full of Trump’s pursuit of personal domestic political prestige, and Juncker’s sacrifice of the interests of other EU member states to seek Germany. Tax-free private goods for the automotive industry.

If you carefully interpret the strange texts that swept through the social media platform, there will be an intuitive feeling. The core meaning of the full text is: the enemy is so powerful, and the fight can't be beaten. Simply let it go, drop it, smash it. Well, everything is peaceful in the world. In other words, it is not so much a shell of the US war against China, but rather a product of some cognition of some Chinese people: this round of trade war between China and the United States has passed, and it is no big deal. The above-mentioned self-media post has directly signed the zero-tariff free trade zone within 24 hours for the three parties of the United States, Japan and Europe, and directly completed the WTO rules upgrade, which led to China’s “fallen into desperation”, but was looking for a decent The noble reason for surrender. It is a pity that the post has neither factual nor theoretical support. This made the author think of Nixon's record of his conversation with Khrushchev - Khrushchev asked Nixon: What does the United States want? Nixon wrote, I originally wanted to say peace, but I am worried that Khrushchev will say next, surrender to me, I can give you peace, so I (Nixon) replied: What we want is peace with dignity.

Starting from this round of Sino-US trade frictions, some people's "peaceful nature of peace" has always shined with a sense of indescribable "glory": such as extremely deep self-reflection, deep excavation is due to certain Video propaganda materials, or some wording in some sturdiness, have angered American leaders who are still ignorant in Washington, causing them to shake the wrath of the Thunder that is absolutely unnecessary; for example, very hard to count the Sino-US The overall calibre of merchandise trade, and then cited the classics from various aspects, including the painful lesson that led to the Japanese Shogunate's mistaken response to the US black ship incident, and the inevitability, necessity, possibility, and rationality of giving up the resistance to fully satisfy the US requirements. Such a good intention, such "love of peace", is also rare in human history.

But unfortunately, in the context of the Sino-US trade war, this strategy of trying to solve problems by recognition is a "mistaken cognition" defined by American scholar Jervis, which stems from the wrong learning and wishful thinking of history. Thinking mode does not really solve the problem. The deviation here is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First, it does not recognize the trade frictions initiated by the United States and the trade wars that have been promoted to China. It has the nature of significant preventive actions. It is the action taken by the hegemonic powers against the challengers identified by them. It is not purely in the ordinary sense. Trade Friction. In 2017, President Trump’s former chief aide, Bannon, gave a speech in Japan, which more straightforwardly explained the purpose and significance of the Trump administration’s action to launch China’s special 301 investigation: seize a 3-8 year The opportunity period will systematically respond to China’s actions and challenges to US hegemony; this shock and challenge is China’s long-term growth based on its own economy, in the foreseeable future, from technological innovation capabilities, innovative industry development, national economic volume, etc. The impact on the US dollar hegemony has substantially shaken and affected the overall hegemony of the United States.

From this perspective, the various technical issues raised by the United States are obeying and serving the maintenance of US hegemony and eliminating the needs of potential strategic challengers; the challenges facing China are like the wolf is constantly wearing a hat or not wearing it. The same as the hat, the problem is not the hat and how to wear it. The problem lies with the intention of the wolf. Putting it will not eliminate this intention. Actions that can eliminate this intention, similar to China's adoption of some form of self-destruction, are far from being solved by unilaterally limited concessions based on the demands of the US.

Second, I did not realize that today's United States is no longer the one in history and memory who wants to fight, and who can defeat the superpower. Based on the cognition of the invincible superpower in my mind, I can't fight, can't afford to fight, can't win, can only "bear", or pin my hopes on the illusory international society, it is very logical to become a choice. From the perspective of China's own historical process, the re-emergence of the putative solution theory in this sense is a great irony, a huge tragedy, especially for some intellectual groups holding similar views. In the 1930s, when facing the threats and challenges of Japan, policymakers once put their bets on the goodwill of the League of Nations and the Nine Nations Convention. The effect is obvious to all.

Various kinds of information show that today's United States is not the superpower that has a good grasp of China and even makes China feel unattainable. The EU does not buy it, the domestic tears, and the leaders publicly play "push" on Twitter. I have done it and made a game equal to it. The consequences of the trade war, the negative reactions and dissatisfaction caused in the United States, roughly equal or significantly exceeded some Chinese perceptions and assessments of American power from the media, and formed a significant cognitive inversion. The latest news is that the Republican Party’s largest gold leader, Koch, has clearly expressed his dissatisfaction with trade protectionism. He publicly stated at a meeting of political donors that he can support the Democrats with a free market concept rather than the Republican conservative. Doctrine. If the Democratic Party wins in the midterm elections, he can cooperate with the Democratic Party. How to accurately understand the current real America with complex diversity through this information, it is obviously crucial to correct the misunderstanding of the United States.

Third, it has not realized that international trade in different eras has undergone profound changes. It is very interesting that some domestic studies that believe that trade surplus countries can't beat trade deficits, and the US president's trade policy think tank Navarro's research, are like two sides of a coin: their cognitive trade is basically a trade textbook. Trade in the UK for exporting wool, Portugal for wine exports. The reality is that after the trade war began, the affected companies adopted a coping strategy that shifted the production line and the accompanying work opportunities from the United States – done by Trump’s praised Harley-Davidson; BMW also Considering the issue of transferring production; the US Congress is quietly going through a legislative process to reduce 1,460 tariffs on goods that cannot be produced in the United States due to trade wars, half of which come from China. The global industrial chain and the deep embedding of China based on comparative advantage are not essentially objective processes that can be distorted by tariff policies. A countermeasure analysis that does not recognize this point will eventually lead to a fairly biased conclusion.

Fourth, the recognition of "怂" as a plausible strategy stems from the random interpretation of the fragmentation of the chief designer's strategy. If you do a word frequency analysis, you can roughly find that trade friction has so far, "slowing the light and raising the shackles" suddenly became a "private country teacher" in many places to solve the Sino-US relationship. For them, although there are reasons to believe that they carefully read the third volume of "Deng Xiaoping's Selected Works" is unlikely to be a high probability event, but if the ordinary people can let the general designer put forward the "hiding and keeping a low profile" and their claims "Equivalent, then their words are somewhat convincing, or confusing." However, the chief designer is talking about calm observation, stabilizing the position, keeping a low profile, making a difference, and never taking the lead. The head here is to replace the position of the Soviet Union and to be the head of the camp confrontation during the Cold War. Inappropriate, not flagging, means not doing things that do not match the strength, rather than letting the main strategic competitors take the demand, but keeping the so-called self-restraint. The development of Sino-US relations has always followed the dialectical logic of seeking peace and peace in struggle, rather than letting the US make a fortune, but the Chinese have accepted it all.

Correcting the above cognitive bias is the first test that China and China will accept during the Sino-US trade friction. It tests whether China, especially the various groups of Chinese society, have the necessary strategic will to meet the strategic pressures that will inevitably accompany the center of the world stage. This is a crucial first step and the beginning of a steady move towards a new future.

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