The grinding market in the first half of the year is highly praised

Since the global economy began to enter the recovery recovery channel in the fourth quarter of 2009, many people in the industry are very optimistic about the grinding market in 2010. In July, it is recalled that in 2010, the grinding market has gone through half a year, and the prices of abrasives and abrasives have been rising rapidly. For the relatively stable price of the abrasive tool market, this wave of rising prices is indeed a rare phenomenon, and the increase in raw material prices behind it is undoubtedly promoted. According to experts from China's phenolic resin network, however, there are different opinions about the grinding market in the second half of the year. People are worried that the price is too high, will inhibit the end market demand, resulting in a heightened fear of customers; optimistic people believe that the rigid market demand still exists, the cost-pushing role will continue to exert force in the second half, short-term market rally is irreversible. In terms of the abrasive market in the first half of the year, as the industry just started out from the bottom of the economic crisis, some small abrasive production enterprises have not yet ended their “hibernation”, large-scale enterprises have not yet opened up full-load production, and the entire abrasive smelting industry operating rate is less than 50%. Abrasive market still continues tight supply conditions during the crisis. At the same time with the downstream The rebound in market demand laid the foundation for the market price rebound. In November last year, the national electricity price was raised overall. Although the range was different, the overall cost was greatly increased, coupled with market price increases and resource tax adjustment rumors. The abrasive market has a price increase. Objective conditions, as of the end of June, brown fused alumina, a number of rough factory invoice prices can be sold to 4,600 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year increased by 500 yuan / ton; white corundum sand now invoice price has exceeded 5,000 yuan / ton. Due to the increase in production costs, grain sand prices have remained high in early April, and the mainstream price of F16-90 # grain size sand products is 7900~8000 yuan/ton.

In addition, in the market of coated abrasives bonded abrasives, the prices of raw materials, paper bases, cloth bases, and bonding agents in addition to abrasives have also risen sharply; there is the title of “Hometown of Chinese Coated Abrasives” in Tongcheng County, Hubei Province. In the first half of this year, production and sales boomed, coated abrasive industry innovation technology, increased product quality, market structure optimization, business model adjustment, and speed up the seizure of Europe and the United States market. According to experts from China phenolic resin network, Baota Shabu factory improved technology Process, improve product quality, efficiency increased by 6 times compared to the same period last year. Bonded abrasive in addition to abrasive resin, glass, rubber and other binder prices have also increased to varying degrees, the current price of resin cuts compared to the beginning of the year About 10% increase. The export market is picking up – With the global economy picking up this year, the demand for abrasives in foreign markets has also increased significantly. From the website of the Ministry of Commerce, Dalian’s export volume of silicon carbide from general trading methods was estimated from January to May. The year-on-year increase of 280% and 473%. Similarly, in the first quarter of this year, Henan Province exported 7,964.62 tons of silicon carbide, an increase of 85.75%; the amount of 1,679.12 US dollars, an increase of 144.98%. Just like Zhejiang Bluebird Mill has limited public Liu Ruiying, manager of the company’s foreign trade department, said: “This year's domestic and international markets are pretty good. Although the price rises so much, but foreign customers can accept it.” Fan Renpo, general manager of Henan Yilong Investment (Group) Co., Ltd., who has long been engaged in the abrasive export trade, told us: "In the first half of this year, the foreign trade business was not bad. The company originally planned to return this year's export ratio to 60%. In the first half of this year, it has basically recovered to about 40%. The rigid demand for abrasives in the international market is still there."

Demand, cost dual power to promote the abrasive abrasive prices. China phenolic resin network experts said that the market supply and demand levels look into 2010, with the rapid improvement of China's economic situation, once sluggish domestic machinery and equipment, mechanical and electrical, metal products, wood, stone, etc. The grinding industry has seen a marked improvement in the end markets, which has led to the rapid release of demand for abrasives in China, which in turn has increased the demand for abrasives. However, following the recovery in downstream market demand, most of the small abrasive manufacturers have not yet emerged from the “cold winter” and domestic scale. Larger abrasive producers also made development adjustments in response to the market's unclear uncertain demand. Only some of the smelting facilities were opened. The entire abrasive industry started operating at less than 50% at the beginning of the year. The market recovers rapidly after the new year and the export prospects are promising. The northwest and southwest regions suffered severe drought for several decades. The supply of electricity and water could not meet the needs of coal power supply. However, the northwestern Yunnan-Guizhou-Gansu-Gansu region was an important production area of ​​silicon carbide corundum in China, and many abrasive enterprises were basically in a state of limited power supply. Discontinued, semi-discontinued state. Under such circumstances, the abrasive market supply is tight, and some companies only For old customers, new customers can order goods even if they first pay. However, at present, with the normal power supply, abrasive companies around the world have also started production at full capacity. Currently, the overall operating rate of the abrasive industry has recovered to over 90%, resulting in overcapacity. , The price is too high to lose the international market price advantage and the industry is facing a new problem.

At the end of 2009, the production cost aspect began. At the same time, China’s economy was rapidly recovering. At the same time, economic inflation pressures were once again rising. The CPI climbed at high levels in successive months, and various prices rose. Under such circumstances, prices of various raw material resources products rose. The production cost of abrasives has also been greatly increased. Speaking of the increase in abrasive production costs, Mr. Fan Renpo, general manager of Henan Yilong Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. calculated for us an account: “All kinds of raw materials required for smelting corundum after years Basically, prices have risen, and clay prices have gone up by 60 yuan per ton, iron scrap has gone up by 200 yuan per ton, and electricity prices have risen by about 0.18 yuan per degree. Together with rising coal prices, the overall cost of smelting of corundum has been increased by about 600 yuan or more. In addition, for the coated abrasive industry, the director of Jiangsu Mitsubishi Materials Co., Ltd. said that due to the reduction of cotton planting area in the main cotton-producing region of Xinjiang in China last year by 30%, the impact of natural disasters on domestic cotton supply was very tight this year. As a result, the price of cotton has risen steadily, ordinary cotton cloth has risen to 8 yuan/meter, the cumulative increase has approached 60%, and the quality is still not very good. Most of its use of high-grade paper products from the country Imports. Since the beginning of this year, international pulp prices have steadily increased. Two large-scale pulp mills in Arauco CMPC have been significantly affected by the Chilean quake. In addition, events in Finland have led to a 90% reduction in exports of pulp from the Nordic countries, resulting in an international market. Pulp supply was tight. In late March, the data showed that bleached softwood Kraft pulp in the European market was quoted at US$888.77 per ton, which was a month-on-month increase of 0.56%. US newsprint was quoted at US$545.92/tonne-581.81 USD/ton, up 0.75%. Between; country hardwood kraft pulp quoted 5,278.28 yuan / ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.55%. Although the Chilean paper mill has gradually resumed production, the Finnish ** incident also ended, late pulp prices are not much room for growth, but because of our country The market demand support and the demand in Europe and the United States have gradually stabilized. The international pulp price does not have a significant downside. The domestic and international pulp market prices will remain high and volatile in the later period.

Market psychology is expected to be good. According to experts from China phenolic resin network, since the prices of various raw material resource products have risen rapidly since the beginning of the year, and at the beginning of the year, representatives of the “**” proposed a resource tax adjustment proposal, which mainly produces raw materials due to abrasives. Bauxite, but the bauxite country controls the exploitation of important resources for export. For a time, the market began to impose rumors of taxation of bauxite resources, and some companies even prepared for the storage of bauxite. At the same time, in the first half of the year with China The drought situation in the south has been continuously aggravated, and China’s power supply is very tight. Along with the rise in coal prices, power generation companies are on the verge of a loss. Several domestic power generation companies have also started to demand increases in electricity prices. Moreover, in order to complete the energy saving and emission reduction during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. Objectives and tasks At the executive meeting of the State Council on April 28, Premier Wen Jiabao stressed the need to strictly enforce the high differential tariff policy for high-energy-consuming industries. It is well-known that the cost of electricity for abrasive production accounts for about 50% of the total cost, with further progress. Pressing up the price of electricity to increase the situation provides sufficient reason for the abrasive producers to increase their prices. Most companies are bullish about post-abrasives. In short, resource taxes. Adjustment of electricity price adjustment is expected to continue to strengthen the situation, abrasive companies raised the price of mentality is also increasingly strong. In the second half of the grinding market worth paying attention to a few points, the first half of the price of resource tax adjustments or will jointly force. After entering the abrasive company in June It has been hotly debated that the adjustment of resource tariffs for half-year price adjustments will begin. Because of the high cost of energy smelting industry, the main cost of power-grinding companies, and the price of alumina as the main raw material for smelting abrasives, will also increase. It will greatly increase the production cost of abrasive companies and will not be a challenge to abrasive companies.

According to experts from China's phenolic resin network, CPI and PPI will continue to rebound in the short-term. As China's CPI (residential consumer price index) PPI (industrial product price index) has continued to rise in the first five months of this year, it has reached a peak value. Under the influence of the tail-up effect, CPI will continue to rise inertially and reach its high point in the year in June and July. It also means that the upward trend of prices will continue for a period of time in the future, domestic inflation pressure on the economy can not be ignored, and the country may continue to use more. This kind of policy means strengthens the management of inflation expectations and guides management. In addition, the capital shortage situation will be normal in the second half of the year. From a series of economic data in the first five months of this year, China’s central bank is currently releasing a reasonable level of new basics every month. Previously, experts expected. However, due to the high rate of deposit preparation, the open market has been heavily repatriated in the early stage, and it is difficult to change the liquidity situation. A series of measures to save the economy were introduced last year compared to the global financial crisis. Seems to be a little overstretched and is currently being recycled. As a result, the capital shortage will be normal in the second half of the year. China's foreign trade market must not be blindly optimistic. Despite this year In half a year, China’s foreign trade situation was good, and imports and exports continued to increase. In particular, the country’s exports grew by nearly 50% in May, which was significantly better than expected. However, after careful analysis, it will be found that China’s foreign trade market can’t be blindly optimistic in the second half of the year. First, the European sovereign debt crisis The euro zone is still spreading. Although sovereign nations are trying their best to rescue them, they have not been effectively contained so far. If they continue to deteriorate in the later period, they will definitely affect China’s exports to the euro zone countries. In addition, the US-Korean exchange rate dispute seems to be calm at the end of April. However, with the conclusion of the U.S. economic talks, the U.S. has continued to regard the U.S. exchange rate as the main sign of U.S. trade imbalance. In the later period, it is not precluded from continuing to impose pressure on the U.S. to appreciate.

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