Chen Jiagui: Accelerating the development of non-fossil fuels The Chinese economy has encountered many problems in its further development. One of the most important issues is energy and environmental issues. We must not rely on relying on international resources, but we must rely on domestic resources. The development of non-fossil energy sources or the development of new renewable energy sources is not a problem that cannot be developed or developed, but rather it is necessary to accelerate the development and healthy development.
There are indeed many problems that have not been solved in the development of renewable energy, such as technical issues. The development of new energy has a process. In the course of growth and development, it will certainly need state support. However, there are indeed many problems that require further study by us. Fundamental issues and security issues all require us to correctly handle development.
Regarding policy issues, including fiscal subsidies, it is “sprinkle the pepper†or focus on solving some problems, such as focusing on solving technical issues, research issues, public relations issues, etc.? Is it focused on supporting some of the more mature companies, or is it still blooming? Many issues need to be studied.
(The author is former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Department of Economics)
Du Xiangxi: Developing non-fossil energy and taking a new road to industrialization Non-fossil energy includes renewable energy and nuclear energy. The proportion of non-fossil energy in China's total energy is expected to reach 11.4% by the end of the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, 15% by 2020, and 40% by 2050. The development of non-fossil energy is a long-term strategic choice for China's energy development. It is in line with the goal of building a “two-type society†and a national strategy for achieving win-win economic and environmental development. It is also part of the national strategy for addressing climate change. Nuclear energy and renewable energy are sustainable and large-scale development of energy. They can provide clean energy, optimize energy structure, and increase energy supply. Resources and science and technology make these new energy development practical and feasible, and will drive a series of scientific and technological innovations, support strategic emerging industries, and occupy the strategic commanding heights of economic and social development.
Safety is the first principle for the development of nuclear energy Nuclear energy will gradually become one of the green pillars of China's energy. The development of nuclear power experienced thermal neutron reactors (such as pressurized water reactors) - fast neutron reactors - fusion reactors "trilogy". This "trilogy" is well connected and is sustainable. Controlled nuclear fusion is the home of nuclear energy development. The first two tunes depended on the supply of resources and had both domestic and import efforts. * Resources do not constitute the fundamental constraint for China's nuclear power development. It is necessary to pay attention to coordinated development of all links. At present, the back-end is a weak link and needs to be strengthened. The entire industry chain of nuclear power development includes: nuclear resources - nuclear fuel cycle - nuclear power stations - post-processing - nuclear waste disposal. Economic calculations and environmental impacts should also take into account the entire life cycle.
Safety is the first principle for the development of nuclear energy. The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has many lessons to learn. First, the nuclear power plant should not be located on the seismic zone; second, the safety standards for nuclear power plant design should fully consider possible natural disasters and human-induced accidents. Third, in the event of an accident, it is necessary not only to ensure automatic shutdown, but also to Ensure the effectiveness of cooling means; Fourth, the cooling water of the spent fuel pool can not be ensured under the accident, but also must be improved; Fifth, in the case of accidents that exceed the design criteria, an effective emergency plan is needed to make the consequences controllable; Sixthly, the post-processing of the Fukushima accident was not timely and very forceless, exposing a series of institutional, managerial, and technical issues. Advances in technology and institutional management will make nuclear power safer.
The strategic position of renewable energy rises The strategic position of renewable energy will gradually increase from the current complementary energy to one of the alternative energy and even the dominant energy. In 2050, the proportion of renewable energy in China's primary energy is expected to reach about 25%, and make an important contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Hydropower is the first focus of renewable energy development by 2030. Because of its clear resources and mature technology, in terms of national policies, we should do a good job of ecological protection while promoting its active, accelerated, and orderly development. It is expected that hydropower will reach 300 million kilowatts, 400 million kilowatts, and 450 million to 500 million kilowatts in 2020, 2030, and 2050, respectively. We must actively develop non-water renewable energy sources according to local conditions. The solar energy resources are abundant, the available solar energy resources are about 2 billion kilowatts, the wind energy resources are more than 1 billion kilowatts, and the land is larger than the sea; the biomass resources are about 300 million tons of standard coal, and there is potential for cultivation; wind energy, solar energy, Biomass energy has become the new pillar of green energy.
Non-water renewable energy sources should focus on breakthroughs in innovation of core capabilities and technological and economical bottlenecks before 2020, with a focus on improving economic benefits from wind power, reducing the cost of solar photovoltaics and solar thermal power generation, intermittent energy integration and cellulosic liquid fuel technologies, etc. Solidly lay the foundation, do a good job of demonstration, and gradually industrialize and scale up. We will vigorously promote the existing basic solar thermal utilization, biogas, and actively develop geothermal energy and ocean energy. We attach great importance to the use of classified waste resources. Realize the modernization of China's rural energy forms. The total contribution of non-water renewable energy in 2020, 2030, and 2050 may reach approximately 200 million Tce, 400 million Tce, and 800 million Tce, respectively. In order to adapt to the development of renewable energy, it is necessary to build a smart grid, develop distributed power, and develop large-scale energy storage technologies.
Without leading technology, the country will not be able to lead China's non-fossil energy in the proportion of total energy (including renewable energy and nuclear energy), and it is expected to reach 11.4% by the end of the “12th Five-Year Plan†and 15% by 2020, and it is expected to reach 2050. About 40%. The numerator is 15 and the denominator is 100. The numerator needs to be as large as possible, but if the denominator does not live, the 15% goal is unachievable. The total energy consumption must be developed because China is growing rapidly. In 2010, China's GDP accounted for 9.5% of the world's GDP, while China's energy consumption accounted for 19.5% of the world's energy consumption, and China's energy consumption per unit of GDP exceeded the world average, which is 4.9 times that of Japan. Japan is similar to our GDP. In 2010, Japan consumed 660 million tons of standard coal, and we consumed 325 million tons of standard coal, which is 4.9 times worse.
The question is: Can we now follow the modernization of the United States and Britain? This is unrealistic. China's national conditions do not allow this. We must take a new road to industrialization. From the per capita GDP perspective, look at this issue: The United States has 5% of the world’s population and consumes 20% of the world’s energy. China’s population is 4.4 times that of the United States. If the per capita energy is the same as that of the United States, almost all of the energy in the world is given to China. If the world must catch up with the US per capita energy consumption, what does it mean? It takes 4 total energy on Earth to feed this planet. Simple arithmetic tells us that the U.S. road is a fact, but it is not a model for the world. It is definitely not a realistic road that China can follow. Several simple figures show that China must be modernized, but it can only achieve modernization at a level significantly lower than the average energy consumption of the Americans. This is the path China is destined to take, but some people in China are not fully aware of this. .
Non-fossil energy must develop, but the development of non-fossil energy does not mean that it seizes the strategic commanding heights. If we use some non-advanced technologies and rely on expanding the scale, the development of non-fossil energy will not lead the way. We can only follow people. This is China's strategic issue. Why did US Secretary of Commerce Locke explicitly oppose China’s independent innovation on energy issues when he came to China? China must not give up independent innovation. The United States does not want China to innovate itself, but always follows the United States’ technology. In 2020, China will build an innovation-oriented country. Science and technology in new energy must lead. Without leading technology, the country cannot lead. Only with revolutionary innovation can we occupy the strategic commanding heights. The increase in the number does not mean that it must occupy the strategic commanding heights.
Take solar batteries, we use many other countries' methods to produce a lot, consume China's energy, emit carbon dioxide in China, produce a lot of things to sell, and China's solar power has not developed. And what is his country doing? Three laboratories in the United States, Germany, and Japan reported that their new non-silicon solar cells have achieved high levels of photoelectric conversion efficiency. Breakthrough the original concept will lead and occupy the commanding heights. If you follow others, the scale can be bigger, but you can't lead.
(The author is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and former vice president)
Pan Jiahua: Mature technologies are sustainable technologies Energy is an important material basis for human survival and development. Every major progress in human civilization is accompanied by improvement and replacement of energy sources, and the rational development and utilization of energy and sustainable development of the world economy. The development of human society is of great significance.
In 2008, the proportion of global non-fossil energy in primary energy was approximately 12.2%, of which the vast majority was biomass energy, accounting for 10.2%. The others were nuclear energy 2.0%, hydropower 2.3%, wind power 0.2%, direct solar energy utilization 0.1% . The prospects for the development of non-fossil energy in the future are different from those of different agencies. According to the “Energy Report†released recently by the World Society for Nature and Nature (WWF), by 2050, human beings can rely on renewable energy to almost 100% to meet the energy needs of electricity, transportation, industry and households. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) submitted a report in early May this year after conducting a three-year comprehensive assessment of renewable energy technologies and markets. The conclusion is that by 2050, renewable energy will meet 17% of the total - 78% of total energy demand.
In order to implement the scientific concept of development and accelerate the transformation of economic development patterns, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, China will vigorously develop a low-carbon economy and strive to achieve the targeted emission reduction targets. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s non-fossil energy ratio increased from 8.3% to 11.4%, and the difference of 3.1% should be the most difficult to complete in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. China needs government incentives and subsidies to develop non-fossil fuels. However, for immature technologies, the more government subsidies, the greater the waste. Today's subsidized technology may be eliminated tomorrow. Only mature technologies with market competitiveness are sustainable technologies. Subsidizing the funds promoted to subsidize R&D will not only comply with the WTO rules, but will also do more with less.
(The writer is a member of the National Climate Change Experts Committee and Director of the Institute of Urban and Environmental Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Nest clean dust: China's wind energy, solar energy resources utilization prospects China is currently working on the fourth wind energy survey, the census is more refined, not only for the general survey of surface wind energy, but also includes a census of altitudes of 70 meters, 100 meters, 120 meters, and so on. Some new conclusions have been drawn, including the conditions of wind energy resources with plans for tens of thousands of kilowatts of bases such as the northern Xinjiang in Xinjiang, the Songnen Plain in Heilongjiang, the area east of Jiamusi, and the hills in northern Liaoning.
For solar energy resources evaluation, we have not done enough. There are only a few hundred weather stations on the ground. The number of radiation stations in the United States is more than double that of us, there are more than 1,400 stations, and the information is done in great detail, including total radiation resources, direct radiation resources, resolution of 10 kilometers by 10 kilometers, and different ways of using solar energy, such as photovoltaics. Resources and light and heat resources provide very refined assessment data. China should also re-encrypt some solar observatories at spatial resolution, and at the same time carry out more detailed census for different uses.
China has relatively good policies and plans for the development of wind power and solar energy during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period including the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period. For the development of wind energy and solar energy resources, we face some challenges from the perspective of weather. Some work needs to be done: Wind power development and operation services, from site selection to accurate power forecasting (the occurrence of a series of disasters in these years will actually have a great impact on the location of wind power facilities and wind power plants), and then optimize. The power grid structure and the optimization of power dispatch all require good operational service protection. Solar energy also faces problems in site selection and safe operation of power plants. To provide professional meteorological services and develop research and development of wind power optimization dispatching technologies, which involve market-related measures related to the classification and consumption systems, quota transactions, and supporting supporting power supply, intermittent energy technologies, etc., as well as compensation for transmission costs and assistance. The related economic means such as service cost sharing, and the corresponding dispatching decision support system, etc. We are just getting started in these areas. As the power grid has a very high demand for wind power forecasting systems, the current service technology has greatly limited the development of wind power. The system requirements for wind power forecasting include the selection of various historical statistical parameters and statistical parameters for the operation of wind farms. Others also involve a series of technical guarantees to meet the safety, compatibility and stability requirements of power plants. In addition, a good wind forecasting system should be able to meet the requirements of forecasting time resolution, forecasting effectiveness, and forecasting accuracy. For example, wind power can be forecasted for the next three days or even ten minutes, and the single calculation time for wind power is less than 15 minutes, and the system prediction accuracy can reach over 85%. These all impose higher requirements on the forecasting system. In addition, all current wind resource surveys we make are based on past and current conditions. If wind power development plans are to be made for the next 15 or 20 years, we should also consider whether there will be changes in the law of wind distribution after future changes in the general circulation situation. For example, if the situation of the wind farm changes in 2050 compared with the current situation, will wind power planning after 40 years be completely based on the existing resource assessment? These issues have not yet been considered in our investigation. For various energy facilities planning and construction, natural disasters must also be fully taken into consideration. For example, in the construction of nuclear power plants in coastal areas, the impact of typhoons and large storm surges must be taken into account. Various wind power and solar power plants in inland areas should be considered. To the impact of low temperature, lightning strikes, ice coating, etc. on the transmission lines, consideration of these issues is not yet enough.
Relevant suggestions: First, in the aspect of resource assessment, the investigation of offshore wind energy resources should be further strengthened. At present, only a small number of observation towers have been set up in the offshore areas, which cannot solve the problems well, and the comprehensive utilization of numerical models and observation tower evaluations is strengthened. It will be the focus of future detailed investigation of wind energy resources. The second is forecast security, including wind power forecasting systems with high resolution and high accuracy, as well as solar power generation and thermal utilization forecasting technologies. Currently, China is still in its infancy. The third is the prevention of disaster risks, including the impact of a series of disaster risks such as typhoon, high temperature, lightning strikes, low temperature, and high humidity on the location of power stations, and extreme weather related monitoring and early warning technologies for wind farms, solar power stations, and power grids. To meet the service needs of non-fossil energy market development in the future. (The author is Deputy Director of Department of Science, Technology and Climate Change, China Meteorological Administration)
There are indeed many problems that have not been solved in the development of renewable energy, such as technical issues. The development of new energy has a process. In the course of growth and development, it will certainly need state support. However, there are indeed many problems that require further study by us. Fundamental issues and security issues all require us to correctly handle development.
Regarding policy issues, including fiscal subsidies, it is “sprinkle the pepper†or focus on solving some problems, such as focusing on solving technical issues, research issues, public relations issues, etc.? Is it focused on supporting some of the more mature companies, or is it still blooming? Many issues need to be studied.
(The author is former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Department of Economics)
Du Xiangxi: Developing non-fossil energy and taking a new road to industrialization Non-fossil energy includes renewable energy and nuclear energy. The proportion of non-fossil energy in China's total energy is expected to reach 11.4% by the end of the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, 15% by 2020, and 40% by 2050. The development of non-fossil energy is a long-term strategic choice for China's energy development. It is in line with the goal of building a “two-type society†and a national strategy for achieving win-win economic and environmental development. It is also part of the national strategy for addressing climate change. Nuclear energy and renewable energy are sustainable and large-scale development of energy. They can provide clean energy, optimize energy structure, and increase energy supply. Resources and science and technology make these new energy development practical and feasible, and will drive a series of scientific and technological innovations, support strategic emerging industries, and occupy the strategic commanding heights of economic and social development.
Safety is the first principle for the development of nuclear energy Nuclear energy will gradually become one of the green pillars of China's energy. The development of nuclear power experienced thermal neutron reactors (such as pressurized water reactors) - fast neutron reactors - fusion reactors "trilogy". This "trilogy" is well connected and is sustainable. Controlled nuclear fusion is the home of nuclear energy development. The first two tunes depended on the supply of resources and had both domestic and import efforts. * Resources do not constitute the fundamental constraint for China's nuclear power development. It is necessary to pay attention to coordinated development of all links. At present, the back-end is a weak link and needs to be strengthened. The entire industry chain of nuclear power development includes: nuclear resources - nuclear fuel cycle - nuclear power stations - post-processing - nuclear waste disposal. Economic calculations and environmental impacts should also take into account the entire life cycle.
Safety is the first principle for the development of nuclear energy. The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has many lessons to learn. First, the nuclear power plant should not be located on the seismic zone; second, the safety standards for nuclear power plant design should fully consider possible natural disasters and human-induced accidents. Third, in the event of an accident, it is necessary not only to ensure automatic shutdown, but also to Ensure the effectiveness of cooling means; Fourth, the cooling water of the spent fuel pool can not be ensured under the accident, but also must be improved; Fifth, in the case of accidents that exceed the design criteria, an effective emergency plan is needed to make the consequences controllable; Sixthly, the post-processing of the Fukushima accident was not timely and very forceless, exposing a series of institutional, managerial, and technical issues. Advances in technology and institutional management will make nuclear power safer.
The strategic position of renewable energy rises The strategic position of renewable energy will gradually increase from the current complementary energy to one of the alternative energy and even the dominant energy. In 2050, the proportion of renewable energy in China's primary energy is expected to reach about 25%, and make an important contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Hydropower is the first focus of renewable energy development by 2030. Because of its clear resources and mature technology, in terms of national policies, we should do a good job of ecological protection while promoting its active, accelerated, and orderly development. It is expected that hydropower will reach 300 million kilowatts, 400 million kilowatts, and 450 million to 500 million kilowatts in 2020, 2030, and 2050, respectively. We must actively develop non-water renewable energy sources according to local conditions. The solar energy resources are abundant, the available solar energy resources are about 2 billion kilowatts, the wind energy resources are more than 1 billion kilowatts, and the land is larger than the sea; the biomass resources are about 300 million tons of standard coal, and there is potential for cultivation; wind energy, solar energy, Biomass energy has become the new pillar of green energy.
Non-water renewable energy sources should focus on breakthroughs in innovation of core capabilities and technological and economical bottlenecks before 2020, with a focus on improving economic benefits from wind power, reducing the cost of solar photovoltaics and solar thermal power generation, intermittent energy integration and cellulosic liquid fuel technologies, etc. Solidly lay the foundation, do a good job of demonstration, and gradually industrialize and scale up. We will vigorously promote the existing basic solar thermal utilization, biogas, and actively develop geothermal energy and ocean energy. We attach great importance to the use of classified waste resources. Realize the modernization of China's rural energy forms. The total contribution of non-water renewable energy in 2020, 2030, and 2050 may reach approximately 200 million Tce, 400 million Tce, and 800 million Tce, respectively. In order to adapt to the development of renewable energy, it is necessary to build a smart grid, develop distributed power, and develop large-scale energy storage technologies.
Without leading technology, the country will not be able to lead China's non-fossil energy in the proportion of total energy (including renewable energy and nuclear energy), and it is expected to reach 11.4% by the end of the “12th Five-Year Plan†and 15% by 2020, and it is expected to reach 2050. About 40%. The numerator is 15 and the denominator is 100. The numerator needs to be as large as possible, but if the denominator does not live, the 15% goal is unachievable. The total energy consumption must be developed because China is growing rapidly. In 2010, China's GDP accounted for 9.5% of the world's GDP, while China's energy consumption accounted for 19.5% of the world's energy consumption, and China's energy consumption per unit of GDP exceeded the world average, which is 4.9 times that of Japan. Japan is similar to our GDP. In 2010, Japan consumed 660 million tons of standard coal, and we consumed 325 million tons of standard coal, which is 4.9 times worse.
The question is: Can we now follow the modernization of the United States and Britain? This is unrealistic. China's national conditions do not allow this. We must take a new road to industrialization. From the per capita GDP perspective, look at this issue: The United States has 5% of the world’s population and consumes 20% of the world’s energy. China’s population is 4.4 times that of the United States. If the per capita energy is the same as that of the United States, almost all of the energy in the world is given to China. If the world must catch up with the US per capita energy consumption, what does it mean? It takes 4 total energy on Earth to feed this planet. Simple arithmetic tells us that the U.S. road is a fact, but it is not a model for the world. It is definitely not a realistic road that China can follow. Several simple figures show that China must be modernized, but it can only achieve modernization at a level significantly lower than the average energy consumption of the Americans. This is the path China is destined to take, but some people in China are not fully aware of this. .
Non-fossil energy must develop, but the development of non-fossil energy does not mean that it seizes the strategic commanding heights. If we use some non-advanced technologies and rely on expanding the scale, the development of non-fossil energy will not lead the way. We can only follow people. This is China's strategic issue. Why did US Secretary of Commerce Locke explicitly oppose China’s independent innovation on energy issues when he came to China? China must not give up independent innovation. The United States does not want China to innovate itself, but always follows the United States’ technology. In 2020, China will build an innovation-oriented country. Science and technology in new energy must lead. Without leading technology, the country cannot lead. Only with revolutionary innovation can we occupy the strategic commanding heights. The increase in the number does not mean that it must occupy the strategic commanding heights.
Take solar batteries, we use many other countries' methods to produce a lot, consume China's energy, emit carbon dioxide in China, produce a lot of things to sell, and China's solar power has not developed. And what is his country doing? Three laboratories in the United States, Germany, and Japan reported that their new non-silicon solar cells have achieved high levels of photoelectric conversion efficiency. Breakthrough the original concept will lead and occupy the commanding heights. If you follow others, the scale can be bigger, but you can't lead.
(The author is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and former vice president)
Pan Jiahua: Mature technologies are sustainable technologies Energy is an important material basis for human survival and development. Every major progress in human civilization is accompanied by improvement and replacement of energy sources, and the rational development and utilization of energy and sustainable development of the world economy. The development of human society is of great significance.
In 2008, the proportion of global non-fossil energy in primary energy was approximately 12.2%, of which the vast majority was biomass energy, accounting for 10.2%. The others were nuclear energy 2.0%, hydropower 2.3%, wind power 0.2%, direct solar energy utilization 0.1% . The prospects for the development of non-fossil energy in the future are different from those of different agencies. According to the “Energy Report†released recently by the World Society for Nature and Nature (WWF), by 2050, human beings can rely on renewable energy to almost 100% to meet the energy needs of electricity, transportation, industry and households. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) submitted a report in early May this year after conducting a three-year comprehensive assessment of renewable energy technologies and markets. The conclusion is that by 2050, renewable energy will meet 17% of the total - 78% of total energy demand.
In order to implement the scientific concept of development and accelerate the transformation of economic development patterns, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, China will vigorously develop a low-carbon economy and strive to achieve the targeted emission reduction targets. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s non-fossil energy ratio increased from 8.3% to 11.4%, and the difference of 3.1% should be the most difficult to complete in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. China needs government incentives and subsidies to develop non-fossil fuels. However, for immature technologies, the more government subsidies, the greater the waste. Today's subsidized technology may be eliminated tomorrow. Only mature technologies with market competitiveness are sustainable technologies. Subsidizing the funds promoted to subsidize R&D will not only comply with the WTO rules, but will also do more with less.
(The writer is a member of the National Climate Change Experts Committee and Director of the Institute of Urban and Environmental Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Nest clean dust: China's wind energy, solar energy resources utilization prospects China is currently working on the fourth wind energy survey, the census is more refined, not only for the general survey of surface wind energy, but also includes a census of altitudes of 70 meters, 100 meters, 120 meters, and so on. Some new conclusions have been drawn, including the conditions of wind energy resources with plans for tens of thousands of kilowatts of bases such as the northern Xinjiang in Xinjiang, the Songnen Plain in Heilongjiang, the area east of Jiamusi, and the hills in northern Liaoning.
For solar energy resources evaluation, we have not done enough. There are only a few hundred weather stations on the ground. The number of radiation stations in the United States is more than double that of us, there are more than 1,400 stations, and the information is done in great detail, including total radiation resources, direct radiation resources, resolution of 10 kilometers by 10 kilometers, and different ways of using solar energy, such as photovoltaics. Resources and light and heat resources provide very refined assessment data. China should also re-encrypt some solar observatories at spatial resolution, and at the same time carry out more detailed census for different uses.
China has relatively good policies and plans for the development of wind power and solar energy during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period including the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period. For the development of wind energy and solar energy resources, we face some challenges from the perspective of weather. Some work needs to be done: Wind power development and operation services, from site selection to accurate power forecasting (the occurrence of a series of disasters in these years will actually have a great impact on the location of wind power facilities and wind power plants), and then optimize. The power grid structure and the optimization of power dispatch all require good operational service protection. Solar energy also faces problems in site selection and safe operation of power plants. To provide professional meteorological services and develop research and development of wind power optimization dispatching technologies, which involve market-related measures related to the classification and consumption systems, quota transactions, and supporting supporting power supply, intermittent energy technologies, etc., as well as compensation for transmission costs and assistance. The related economic means such as service cost sharing, and the corresponding dispatching decision support system, etc. We are just getting started in these areas. As the power grid has a very high demand for wind power forecasting systems, the current service technology has greatly limited the development of wind power. The system requirements for wind power forecasting include the selection of various historical statistical parameters and statistical parameters for the operation of wind farms. Others also involve a series of technical guarantees to meet the safety, compatibility and stability requirements of power plants. In addition, a good wind forecasting system should be able to meet the requirements of forecasting time resolution, forecasting effectiveness, and forecasting accuracy. For example, wind power can be forecasted for the next three days or even ten minutes, and the single calculation time for wind power is less than 15 minutes, and the system prediction accuracy can reach over 85%. These all impose higher requirements on the forecasting system. In addition, all current wind resource surveys we make are based on past and current conditions. If wind power development plans are to be made for the next 15 or 20 years, we should also consider whether there will be changes in the law of wind distribution after future changes in the general circulation situation. For example, if the situation of the wind farm changes in 2050 compared with the current situation, will wind power planning after 40 years be completely based on the existing resource assessment? These issues have not yet been considered in our investigation. For various energy facilities planning and construction, natural disasters must also be fully taken into consideration. For example, in the construction of nuclear power plants in coastal areas, the impact of typhoons and large storm surges must be taken into account. Various wind power and solar power plants in inland areas should be considered. To the impact of low temperature, lightning strikes, ice coating, etc. on the transmission lines, consideration of these issues is not yet enough.
Relevant suggestions: First, in the aspect of resource assessment, the investigation of offshore wind energy resources should be further strengthened. At present, only a small number of observation towers have been set up in the offshore areas, which cannot solve the problems well, and the comprehensive utilization of numerical models and observation tower evaluations is strengthened. It will be the focus of future detailed investigation of wind energy resources. The second is forecast security, including wind power forecasting systems with high resolution and high accuracy, as well as solar power generation and thermal utilization forecasting technologies. Currently, China is still in its infancy. The third is the prevention of disaster risks, including the impact of a series of disaster risks such as typhoon, high temperature, lightning strikes, low temperature, and high humidity on the location of power stations, and extreme weather related monitoring and early warning technologies for wind farms, solar power stations, and power grids. To meet the service needs of non-fossil energy market development in the future. (The author is Deputy Director of Department of Science, Technology and Climate Change, China Meteorological Administration)
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