Shen Fuxin, secretary general of the Zhejiang Solar Energy Industry Association, said: “The spot price of domestic polysilicon has now risen to 73 US dollars. From the current situation, the photovoltaic industry is recovering. If there is no special accident, the next round Industrial expansion will be more powerful than it was in 2008."
According to Shen Fuxin's estimation, by 2012, the output value of the photovoltaic industry in Zhejiang Province will reach 200 billion yuan. Behind this ambitious planning goal, the photovoltaic industry seems to be reverting to the passion of the past—private enterprise capital surges and dreams of high returns in this rising industry.
Different from the last rapid expansion of the industry, companies that have experienced industrial chaos and brutality are now more cautious and rational: companies that have joined the industry begin to assess market prospects, their own technical level, scale of power, risk assessment and Control; further expansion of the enterprise is cautious test; companies that have been knocked out relentlessly, there is no longer a plan to re-enter in the short term.
Reason and caution may circumvent business risks, but the risks inherent in the “two out†industry characteristics of the photovoltaic industry rely solely on rationality and caution at the corporate level and cannot be fully controlled.
In the new round of industry development cycle, private photovoltaic companies with weak anti-risk capability urgently need systematic support from the policy level. And whether the policy experiment that has started in Zhejiang will provide a practical sample for the national photovoltaic industry?
Zhejiang photovoltaic industry is out of the bottom
“The number of photovoltaic companies in Zhejiang is about 100. Unlike in Jiangsu Province, the photovoltaic companies in Zhejiang are small in scale and numerous in number. The relationship with the government is not as close as that of Jiangsu.†Shen Fuxin stated that there are two reasons for this: The strength of private capital in Zhejiang is strong, and information sharing among private enterprises is relatively common. As soon as there are business opportunities, companies in the circle have started to cut in and have insufficient interaction with the government. Second, Jiangsu Province has a unique “Suntech modelâ€. And use it as a blueprint to form a certain demonstration effect.
It is understood that domestic photovoltaic companies are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, of which photovoltaic companies account for about half of the country's total output, Zhejiang accounts for about 1/4, the remaining market share from Jiangxi, Hebei, Shandong and other provinces.
In fact, in the solar feast of 2008, the total number of private enterprises in Zhejiang Province that cut into the photovoltaic industry far exceeds the current scale of about 100. Due to the small scale, lack of technical capabilities, and the lack of a complete industrial chain, photovoltaic companies suffered heavy losses in the subsequent financial crisis, and the number of photovoltaic companies decreased sharply.
According to Shen Fuxin's introduction, in the photovoltaic industry, the total industrial output value is more than half of the county's Kaihua County, Shengzhou City, Zhejiang Province, and the total number of two silicon (crystalline silicon and silicone) companies reached 57 during the peak period. During the financial crisis, nearly half of these companies went out of business. Today, there are only 30 companies, among which dozens are crystal silicon and photovoltaic midstream companies.
“But if you go to Kaihua County Silicon Electronics Professional Park now, you will find that they are busy. It can be said that with the recovery of the international market demand, the negative impact of the financial crisis last year on the photovoltaic industry in Kaihua County is being eliminated. The province's photovoltaic industry is also coming out of the bottom."
Kaihua photovoltaic company is expected to increase 20
September 3. Kaihua County, Shengzhou City. clear. 35 degrees Celsius.
In Kaihua County, a gathering place for photovoltaic companies in the silicon electronics professional park, Gu Zhen, deputy director of the Investment Promotion Bureau of the county responsible for the investment in the park, said that from the end of last year, the photovoltaic companies here were “very hot†and the county is currently talking about some photovoltaic companies. In the project, by the end of this year, the number of PV companies is likely to increase by another 20. According to the information learned from Shen Fuxin, in the photovoltaic industry chain of Zhejiang Province, Kaihua County is mainly involved in the upstream silicon raw material production and processing and the supporting business in the middle reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain.
“This year's momentum is very good.†Lei Shuguang, general manager of Kaihua County Jingdao Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. confirmed that the financial crisis in 2009 affected the photovoltaic companies in the county. “The company’s business is in good condition, and some orders are too late for us to produce.†"The company of Lei Shuguang three years ago was supplied by the supplier of silicon to the semiconductor electronics industry to provide silicon wafer suppliers for solar grade silicon to the photovoltaic industry. The current monthly production is 500,000 wafers, and the shipment volume is about Equal to 11MW/year, it is regarded as a large silicon wafer producer in Kaihua County.
According to Gu Shengsheng, due to the good situation of the photovoltaic industry this year, many private enterprises inside and outside the province are prepared to join the gold rush, and even real estate companies have expressed their willingness in this regard. “But most of the newly added companies have smelting and silicone industry backgrounds. There are not many cross-industry phenomena.â€
Gu Sheng also stated that the county’s PV industry has increased the number of companies that have invested and established new projects this year. For example, Zhejiang Jiayi Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has invested 248 million yuan in this year's PV electronics project. The workshop has been completed, with an annual output of 25MW. The solar cell production line has also entered the debugging phase.
Wen Shi concern but rational attitude
Not only in Kaihua County, many private capital also showed a strong interest in the photovoltaic industry. According to Shen Fuxin, in Wenzhou, the capital of Zhejiang's private capital, many companies want to join the industry this year, and the same situation was not common in Wenzhou two years ago.
It is worth noting that Shen Fuxin stated that after the 2009 market baptism, whether in Wenzhou or elsewhere in the province, the new capital has shown a kind of rationality, and there has been little madness two years ago. Photovoltaic companies that survived the industry's low tide in 2009 have adopted more cautious attitudes in today's better market conditions. For instance, they will control output, and they will obviously have a tentative attitude when it comes to additional investments. They are cautious.
"Now there is a willingness to join the capital beforehand to do market capacity prospect assessment, and to measure the company's overall strength and its own technical level, and pay more attention to the industry's risks. In the specific implementation process, it will no longer be sexually impulsive."
Wenzhou businessman Fang Xuyi is one of the more typical examples. In July 2008, Fang Xuyu, who was involved in the photovoltaic industry, stated that in September this year, he and the Wenzhou-based Hong Kong businessmen will invest 20 million U.S. dollars in the formation of a new company. The main business of the new company is different from that of the first company that focuses on solar cells and components, and has focused its attention on the upstream silicon wafer section. It plans to achieve the annual shipment target of 120MW in the second half of next year.
It is understood that the characteristics of companies that focus on silicon wafer slicing as the main industry are capital-intensive and technology-intensive, and the start-up capital of 20 million U.S. dollars can only be considered as a temptation. This has also been confirmed by Fang Xukai.
Fang Xuyun said, “The current situation in the photovoltaic industry is better than last year, but we still cannot see the situation in the second half of next year. We initially invested 20 million US dollars in order to reduce risks. If there is a big fluctuation in the industry next year, then we can Losses are locked in the range of $20 million. Of course, if the current situation can continue, it is ready for additional investment."
In addition to the rationality of additional investment, controlling output is also a manifestation of this attitude. Thunder Shiguang of Kaihua County stated that although there are many orders for their silicon wafer production, there is no case of overtime production. “We do not encourage workers to work overtime, and some orders are still rejected. Now we can't see the industry situation in the next year, and we don't want to blindly expand production to avoid falling into another dilemma like last year.â€
The whole industry chain model can avoid risks
The rational attitude of private capital to the photovoltaic industry is reflected not only in battery panels and component manufacturers such as Fang Xujun, but also in Wang Zhenjun, general manager of Ningbo Solar Power Co., Ltd., the only manufacturer of photovoltaic full-scale industrial chain in Zhejiang Province. very obvious.
Wang Zhenjun said, “We don't like Suntech and Changzhou Trina Solar. They are already listed. Our money is not raised in the capital market. Therefore, before each investment, we will evaluate market and industry risks in detail. It was this attitude of walking on thin ice that prevented us from escaping the 2009 crisis that caused major losses to photovoltaic companies in China. Now that the entire industry has entered a boom cycle, it is still unclear about the duration of this cycle, so we are currently Still do not want to pick up the goods, nor have plans to expand production, but also want to continue to look at."
"Rationality" has almost become the label of the photovoltaic industry in Zhejiang Province. From a corporate perspective, rationality and caution may allow them to avoid operating risks. However, the risks inherent in the “two out†industry characteristics of China's current photovoltaic industry cannot be completely eliminated simply because of the rationality and caution of the company.
The so-called “two ends out†means that the sales of the battery module in the fourth link of the photovoltaic industry chain and the source silicon wafer of the battery sheet in the third link are all heavily dependent on foreign markets.
According to the sales of battery components, according to relevant statistics, in 2008, the output of solar cells in China exceeded 2000MW, of which more than 97% were exported; in 2009, the proportion of exports decreased, but still accounted for more than 90%. This kind of reliance on the pattern of overseas markets has led to a very prominent externality in the development of China's photovoltaic industry. Once there are major fluctuations in overseas markets, it will affect the development of the entire industry chain of China's photovoltaic industry, and even shake the foundation of the industry.
At present, the application of domestic solar photovoltaic is only concentrated in rural electrification and off-grid solar photovoltaic products, such as solar street lamps, and has not entered the application of power supply network, and the latter is the reason why the solar photovoltaic industry can form the cornerstone of the industry.
The status quo of domestic PV applications and the fact that more than 90% of battery module products are sold overseas also have a serious consequence, that is, it does not help China's goal of reducing carbon emissions. At present, the domestic energy consumed in the photovoltaic industry chain production activities has not been recovered and regenerated through the photovoltaic power generation system, and it has not enabled China to enjoy the environmental benefits of solar photovoltaic power generation. As a result, “new energy is exported to foreign countries and carbon emissions remain in the countryâ€. Energy-saving emission reduction upside down phenomenon.
Shen Fuxin believes that under the condition that the country has not done a large-scale subsidy to the domestic photovoltaic industry as in Germany and Spain in order to stimulate the application of photovoltaic terminals, only one road can reduce the risk of “two ends outâ€, that is, establish a full industrial chain model. The formation of industrial clusters, the formation of scale to reduce production costs and improve the ability to resist risks.
The establishment of a full industrial chain model, namely the “vertical integrated operation†of the solar photovoltaic industry, has proved that this model can indeed reduce production costs and improve product gross profit margins. The most typical example is the use of vertical integration of Changzhou Trina Solar and traditional photovoltaic module manufacturers. Wuxi Suntech has huge differences in gross margin. In the second quarter of this year, the former's gross margin exceeded the latter by 15.3 percentage points.
Zhejiang PV Industry Policy Sample
Prudence and rationality, implementation of a vertical integration strategy, and vigorous development of purification and silicon technology are the ultimate measures that Chinese PV companies can adopt to reduce industrial risks. However, if the country does not provide practical support for the photovoltaic industry at a specific policy level, then the Efforts cannot really reduce risks fundamentally, let alone control risks.
Guo Zhenhai, president of global marketing at Zhongsheng Optoelectronics Group, stated that the photovoltaic industry is an industry with obvious policy orientation. The rational performance of the company promotes market balance. However, this does not mean that the photovoltaic industry does not need actual support from the country's specific policies.
Judging from the current situation, China still lacks a systematic support policy for the photovoltaic industry. On August 19th, the price of 0.7288 yuan/kWh for a state-owned PV power plant, which was quoted by a central state-owned enterprise, was seen by many insiders as not helping solve the “two ends out†industry problem in the short term.
The person in charge of a large-scale private photovoltaic company in Jiangsu stated that “now the successful bidders are state-owned enterprises. Which private enterprise is willing to play this game? If the company does not earn normal profits, it loses its significance.â€
Shen Fuxin also stated that “this bid price is very unfair to private enterprises. The current domestic photovoltaic industry's promotion and participation are mainly private enterprises, and our province is also the same.†Shen believes that with the current domestic technology level, photovoltaic grid-connected electricity prices The level should be around 1.6 yuan/kWh.
Shen Fuxin disclosed that at the industrial chain level, Zhejiang Province will cultivate 5 to 6 large-scale PV companies with their own industrial chain in order to reduce costs and avoid industry risks. In terms of technological improvement, Zhejiang Province is planning to establish a “photovoltaic industry research and development centerâ€. "Increase investment in research and development of photovoltaic technology.
The most important thing is that Zhejiang Province will have a big move for PV on-grid tariffs. “For the on-grid PV tariff, a new policy will be expected within two years.†Shen Fuxin revealed that for the 33 national projects, in addition to state subsidies, the Zhejiang provincial government plans to subsidize 0.7 yuan for each one-off electricity supply, and then at the county level. The government subsidizes 0.7 yuan, "the total amount will reach 1.9 yuan/degree."
"We believe that after the subsidy policy, rational distribution of the photovoltaic industry, and technological advancement, the output value of the photovoltaic industry in Zhejiang Province is expected to reach a scale of 200 billion yuan by 2012 on the basis of 14 billion yuan in 2009," Shen Fuxin said.