On April 10th, Beijing time, the National Energy Administration asked for comments on the “Work Plan for Promoting the Construction of Unfunded and Equivalent Internet Projects for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generationâ€. On April 12, the National Energy Administration issued instructions to the energy departments at all levels, requiring 4.25 days ago. On the same day, the National Energy Administration also sought opinions on the 2019 wind power and photovoltaic power generation project management methods, which clearly stated that 730 million of the photovoltaic subsidies of 7.5 billion were used for household photovoltaics and 2.25 billion were used. Assigned to projects that require subsidies for bidding.
The above three important documents not only caused an uproar in the domestic PV industry, but also triggered the keen sense of the overseas PV analysis institutions. After all, the Chinese and foreign PV markets are closely related to each other. China is the world's largest PV market, especially in the current general perception of foreign media. China's PV industry is still a market that relies heavily on policy subsidies, and the impact of policies is moving. whole body.
I believe readers have seen a lot of domestic media's in-depth interpretation of the above three documents. Today, we may wish to stand on the side of the observers to see how foreign media view the recently intensive PV policy (including informal documents). of. If we withdraw from the identity of Chinese PV practitioners, we may find that foreign media's understanding of China's unsubsidized affordable Internet policy is more rational and clear.
The following is a summary of the foreign media views on China's unsubsidized wind power PV parity online policy:
1, PV-magazine
PV-magazine believes that the unsubsidized grid parity PV project will take precedence over subsidized projects in the next 18 months (based on unsubsidized project filings and determined at the end of June) until the limited subsidy PV project begins in 2021. Subsidy projects give way.
2. Roth Capital
As of June 30, 2019, the new installed capacity for the four months from March to June was basically similar to the two months before 2019. The newly installed PV installed capacity in the first half of the year was only 9.4 GW. According to the official photovoltaic association of China, the number of new installed capacity in China in 2019 is about 40GW. According to this figure, Roth expects to install about 15GW in the third quarter and fourth quarter to achieve this goal, which is quite better than 2018. In the second quarter (installation peak), 14.3 GW requires more installed capacity. Roth said that the ability to achieve 40 GW of new installed capacity will depend on whether the National Energy Administration of China can determine and publish a list of solar projects eligible for state subsidies in a timely manner. Any delays during the period will make this goal difficult to achieve. (SOLARZOOM supplement: According to the statistics of China Electricity Council, China's PV installed capacity was 3.49GW in January-February 2019, a decrease of 7.39GW compared with the same period of last year.)
3. PV Tech
Summarizing the recent papers, PV Tech said that the Chinese authorities are still working hard to make a final touch on the PV policy, but found that every official document release is increasingly centered on bidding. For PV projects that require subsidies, the Energy Bureau did not give a size limit and arranged a fund (2.25 billion) to support the top projects in the auction. In the article, PV Tech quoted Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the opinion that if the amount of subsidy in the draft is not changed in the final document, then if the subsidy is 0.05 yuan per kWh and the average utilization hour is 1200h, it is expected. There is a 50 GW scale that can enter the national subsidy catalogue through bidding. Even if the subsidy per kWh is controlled at 0.07 yuan, there will be a scale of 30 GW. This figure is considerable enough to maintain the stable development of the domestic PV market.
4, AECEA
The European Asia Clean Energy (Solar Energy) Consultation (AECEA) believes that the China National Energy Administration’s recent paper on affordable Internet access (draft for comment) can be seen as a guiding route for transition to “parity online†within 18 months. Figure. Before the subsidy project was put into the subsidy project, the bidding of the project requiring subsidies was temporarily not carried out before the first batch of unsubsidized projects were not declared. The energy bureau and the non-subsidized PV project were obviously biased. According to the provisions of the draft, AECEA pointed out that projects that have already been registered for construction indicators, if they have not been connected to the grid within two years, and do not choose to voluntarily switch to cheaper PV projects, they are facing the risk of being abolished. More than 8 GW projects face this choice.
At the same time, AECEA also said that the success of the grid parity policy will ultimately depend on the power transmission of China Power Grid Corporation (State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, etc.) and the ability to ensure the power consumption of new projects. In addition, the analyst also emphasized that at the end of June. The details of the previous green power certificate program are another key factor driving the grid parity project.
40GW new installed data forecast
China PV Industry Association, PVInfolink, Zhihui Photovoltaic and many other institutions and media have made 40GW of domestic installed forecasts. Based on the views of overseas media, we found that both domestic and foreign authoritative analysts are interested in the Chinese market in 2019. The amount of newly installed 40GW has almost reached an agreement.
At the same time, it is impressive that foreign media have generally paid attention to the validity of the document of the 4.8-day document “Working Plan on Promoting the Construction of Unfunded and Equivalent Internet Projects for Photovoltaic Power Generation (Consultation Draft)â€: December 31, 2020 At the end of the day, during the “13th Five-Year Plan†period (2016-2020), the Energy Bureau is working hard to speed up the process of “fair price online†in the countdown. In fact, the Energy Bureau is committed to entering the era of subsidized affordable Internet access in 2021. The subsidy incentives for photovoltaics and wind power will be fully reduced by 2020. This core idea has been released on November 30, 2018. It is clearly stated in the Action Plan 2018~2020.
In the comments of the foreign media on the policy of parity Internet access, the highlights of the node are inconsistently thickened. The foreign media’s understanding of China’s unsubsidized parity online access by 2021 (about 18 months ago) seems to be more common than domestic More unified and firm, in contrast to domestic policy interpretation, more focus on subsidies and bidding. (This may be because we still have inertial thinking and fantasies about subsidies.)
Finally, after the release of the 2019 PV project management draft for the last weekend, the industry has conducted a wonderful and fierce battle for the document as a bad policy or a favorable policy. After reviewing the basis behind the arguments of both sides, we will find that the biggest difference between the two parties lies in the presence or absence of subsidies during the transition period in 2020. The favorable opinion holders believe that during this period, subsidies will still exist, and bad opinions will be The holders believe that the parity policy will lead to the gradual disappearance of subsidies. In fact, everyone understands that when subsidies are going downhill, no subsidies are a matter of time.
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