In 2017, China's new photovoltaic installations exceeded 51GW, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. At the same time that the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation is declining, the competitive allocation method has been further promoted in the allocation of photovoltaic resources, which has fully stimulated the market potential. At the same time that the cost of photovoltaic power generation is further reduced, the era of photovoltaic “flat price†is not far off.
Affected by the accelerated expansion of the domestic PV distributed market and the rapid rise of foreign emerging markets, China's PV industry continues to develop healthily. In 2018, PV demand will remain high and the PV industry will maintain a high level of prosperity.
At present, China's photovoltaic power generation has entered a new stage of large-scale development, and installed capacity has ranked first in the world. In 2017, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaics increased rapidly, and the phenomenon of abandoned wind and abandoned light improved significantly. According to public information, China's photovoltaic power generation installed more than 50GW in 2017, ranking first among renewable energy. In general, affected by the accelerated expansion of the domestic PV distributed market and the rapid rise of foreign emerging markets, the scale of China's PV industry has grown steadily in 2017, the technical level has improved significantly, production costs have decreased significantly, corporate profits have continued to improve, and foreign trade has remained smooth.
Specifically, the newly installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in the country exceeded 19 GW, an increase of more than 360% over the same period of last year, far exceeding the total installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in the previous five years. According to the "13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development", the state has issued a series of supporting policies for the photovoltaic industry, constantly improving the industrial development environment, and promoting the development of the photovoltaic market and industrial transformation and upgrading. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau jointly issued the Supplementary Notice on Piloting the Marketization of Distributed Power Generation Markets, and made a number of detailed regulations on the pilot policy for distributed power marketization transactions issued at the end of 2017.
At the beginning of 2018, the subsidy policy for photovoltaic power generation on-grid price was adjusted. However, the subsidy price for photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects was not adjusted. It is expected that the installed capacity of photovoltaics will continue to grow rapidly in 2018. With the demand for superimposed centralized PV poverty alleviation, front runners and general commercial photovoltaic power plants, the annual installed capacity of domestic PV in 2018-2020 is expected to be above 50GW. Wang Bohua, secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that such a policy of intensive introduction will continue to improve China's photovoltaic industry policy system and protect the healthy and orderly development of the photovoltaic industry.
On the one hand, the domestic PV industry market is expanding, and the output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, modules and inverters is increasing, the scale continues to expand, and production costs and prices are declining. With the "high cost" problem further solved, distributed photovoltaics have been given greater market imagination. At the same time, due to technological progress, the cost of the industry has decreased, and the profitability of industrial enterprises has increased significantly. As the cost of photovoltaics continues to decline, the economic advantages on the electricity side are also becoming increasingly prominent. In theory, self-sufficient rooftop PV for industrial and commercial enterprises has become the type of project with the lowest subsidy demand.
From the perspective of the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in China in 2017, the trend of shifting from the northwest to the central and eastern regions is obvious. At the same time, market segments such as poverty alleviation and household use are accelerating, and the downward adjustment of distributed electricity prices may trigger a new round of rush. The on-grid tariff and electricity price subsidy for PV power plants put into operation after January 1, 2018 will be lowered after June 30, 2017, which will trigger the installation tide. On the one hand, the distributed electricity price remains unchanged to further drive a new wave of rushing to install, while the policy guides the central and eastern regions to actively develop distributed photovoltaics; on the other hand, the photovoltaic subsidy policies are favorable, the household photovoltaics are surging, and the market is booming.
Standing in the new era, looking forward to 2018, the photovoltaic market will deepen the supply-side structural reforms and promote the industry to improve quality and efficiency. In the medium and long term, distributed photovoltaics are expected to continue to exert strength due to their advantages in land, indicators, approval, and subsidy distribution progress. At the same time, equipment performance (such as increased component inverter life, double-sided components), power plant design level (including capacity ratio design, adjustable bracket use), and improved operation and maintenance levels will greatly increase the system power generation level. In 2018, the demand of the photovoltaic industry is between 30 and 45 GW. The heat of the distributed power station is unprecedentedly high, and the market for household and poverty alleviation power stations is worth looking forward to.
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