Global economic downturn oil prices will continue to decline

Business News Agency September 20: The new Director-General of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Maria van der Huven, announced that it will stop the joint operations of releasing strategic oil reserves starting from June 23 this year. “The release of strategic oil reserves and the increase of production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have eased the impact of the disruption of Libya’s oil supply on the market.” In a public statement, the IEA stated that “plus the slowing pace of global economic recovery, oil Demand is expected to decline and other factors, the IEA member state agency board of directors decided to stop the action."

Stop releasing the reserves On June 24 this year, the IEA publicly announced that its 28 member states agreed to release 60 million barrels of crude oil emergency reserve within one month, 2 million barrels per day. This is also the third release of reserve oil in IEA history. After the news was announced, the international oil price "wind vane", that is, the New York crude oil price fell sharply to the level of the end of 2010. From the same period of time, the price of New York crude oil has never reached the level above US$100/barrel.

The IEA stated in its “summary” statement, “This release of emergency stocks was successful, and satisfactory results have been achieved. Libya’s light and low* types of crude oil that have been suspended from exports have been relatively cheap compared to other types of crude oil.”

"Complete success" naturally "retire", IEA is no exception. “Libya's crude oil production has gradually recovered, and international oil prices are not too high to affect the global economy. IEA has no reason to release crude oil reserves.” Yesterday, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, analyzed the “International Finance” reporter. “ Libya’s state-owned oil company, Arabian Gulf Oil Company, said on Tuesday that the company started producing 160,000 barrels of crude oil per day and has already delivered crude oil to the pipeline.”

Another factor in the IEA's cessation of operations came from OPEC because they have been increasing production of crude oil in the past few months and curbing the negative impact of the Libyan war. According to the statistics of the British consulting agency Oil Movements, the average daily crude oil exports of OPEC member countries not included in Angola and Ecuador are expected to increase to 60,000 barrels during the four weeks ending on October 1.

Oil prices are hard to turn around in the short term Although many information agencies have listed the IEA's production shutdown as an important reference for the "message surface," international crude oil prices have not reversed in the two trading days announced by the news. On the last trading day of last week, the New York futures price closed at US$87.90/barrel, falling by US$1.50/barrel, while Brent’s oil price closed at US$112.22/barrel, down US$3.12/barrel, or by 2.71%.

"For the current market, the IEA's shutdown measures can only be regarded as 'small news' and it is not enough to counter the negative shocks caused by the European debt crisis." Lin Boqiang analyzed, "The anxiety of global investors Under the circumstances, international oil prices with extremely strong financial attributes may still experience downward pressure in a short period of time."

In fact, OPEC made it clear in its monthly report last week that the economic slowdown and Libya’s resumption of crude oil exports will bring downside risks to oil prices. “The slowdown in economic recovery is having a negative impact on demand for crude oil. The key markets of the United States and China are The data has been lower than expected. At the same time, Qaddafi’s government has been overthrown, and Libya’s recovery of oil exports may be faster than expected, which will increase market supply.”

“Not only that, but another explanation for the global economic slowdown is the slowdown in demand. This is actually reflected in many countries. For example, the US gasoline consumption is not so much in the past.” Lin Boqiang said, “This is an impact. Another negative factor in the rise in international oil prices."

On September 13th, JP Morgan Chase cut its global average daily oil demand forecast for this year and next year by 250,000 barrels and 630,000 barrels to 88.9 million barrels and 90.3 million barrels respectively; the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) subsequently estimated that for 2011 and 2012 In the same year, the average daily consumption of crude oil in the world will increase by 1.4 million barrels. By 2012, the average daily consumption will reach 89.6 million barrels, but this figure is reduced by 200,000 barrels from the forecast value of the previous month; and the IEA report is the same. Said, "If the economic situation is weak to a certain extent, the crude oil market may appear to be slightly larger than demand next year."

It is worth noting that at present not only OPEC is expecting crude oil to face downside risks, some institutions have also started to decline international oil prices. The German Commercial Bank has predicted that Brent crude oil will be produced in the Brent region of the North Atlantic and North Sea at the end of this year because the current oil price is not supported by the economic side. The London Intercontinental Exchange and the United States Commodity Exchange All his trading, which is the benchmark for market oil prices, will drop to $100/barrel. However, Lin Boqiang believes that the international oil price is still bullish for a long time. “The speculative capital of the international crude oil market has been basically suppressed due to negative news. However, if there is a series of favorable macro news, speculative capital will be reactivated in the market and pushed up. International oil prices."