New ideas and new countermeasures under the new normal

The Chinese economy is currently in the “three-phase superposition” phase of the growth rate shift period, the structural adjustment pain period and the previous stimulus policy digestive period. In 2014, as the first year of comprehensive implementation of the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, economic and social development fully demonstrated the characteristics of the new normal period. We expect China's GDP growth rate to reach 7.3% in 2014, in line with the full-year target. At the same time, inflation levels will also be controlled below the full-year target. In the past year, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have promulgated various policies, including a policy of decentralization and decentralization from the level of government governance, a policy of monetary regulation and control aimed at short-term fluctuations in the economy, and reform policies that have long-term considerations such as fiscal, taxation, household registration, and state-owned enterprise reform. . These short, medium and long-term policies have helped us to stabilize growth, adjust structure, promote reform and benefit the people's livelihood, and will further release institutional and policy dividends in the future to ensure prosperity and stability during the new normal period.

The results of the smooth operation of the economic operation throughout the year continue to show

Compared with 2013, China’s economic growth rate has declined somewhat this year (the GDP growth rate was 7.7% in 2013 and 7.3% in 2014), but some positive progress has been made in adjusting the structure and benefiting people’s livelihood. The development of emerging industries in various industries continued to prosper, and the highlights of economic operations were frequent.

First, the effect of adjusting the structure is significant. In terms of industrial structure, in the first three quarters, the added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 46.7% of GDP, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, 2.5 percentage points higher than the secondary industry, and the entire economic structure moved toward the middle and high end. The situation is very obvious. The demand structure shows new changes. The contribution of final consumption to economic growth in the first three quarters was 48.5%, which was about 7 percentage points higher than the contribution of total capital formation growth. The driving effect of consumption on economic growth continued to increase.

Second, the income of residents has grown rapidly and the employment situation has been relatively stable. In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income growth rate outperformed GDP growth rate and fiscal revenue growth rate, and the proportion of household income in the initial distribution of the national economy increased. In the first three quarters, the number of newly-employed people in cities and towns nationwide reached 10.82 million, which is equivalent to the annual target of 10 million jobs in the first three quarters.

Third, emerging formats such as information consumption continue to prosper. In the first three quarters, the national online retail sales increased by 49.9%, of which the online retail sales of units above designated size increased by 54.8%. In the first three quarters, the sales of communications equipment above designated size increased by 31.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was nearly 8 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year.

Fourth, efforts to resolve overcapacity and energy conservation and emission reduction are progressing smoothly. In terms of resolving overcapacity, through a series of policy measures, the excess capacity of the steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, photovoltaic, and flat glass industries has been compressed to a certain extent. In terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, in the first three quarters, energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 4.6% year-on-year, higher than the target for this year.

Overall, China’s economic growth has slowed slightly this year, and the growth rate shift is “the pain of adjustment”. Behind the slowdown in growth is the overlapping effect of severe overcapacity in traditional industries, continued real estate adjustments and slowing investment in infrastructure construction. Under the new normal, the structure of economic growth continues to improve, the quality of growth has improved, the new dynamics of economic endogenous growth have gathered, and the composition of the new economy has thrived. The entire Chinese economy continues to develop in a good direction. It can be said that the good situation of macro stability and structural advancement cannot be separated from effective policy measures and deepening reforms. The system dividends and stable environment released by these measures together ensure the steady progress of economic development under the new normal.

Reform policy to help release the system dividend

In 2014, the Party Central Committee and the State Council launched a series of policy measures and related reforms, which played a crucial role in the short-term stable growth and the promotion of structural adjustment and improvement of people's livelihood in the medium and long term. During 2014, a series of policy measures and reform measures in the fields of finance and taxation, currency, household registration, prices, state-owned enterprises, foreign trade, and real estate. Looking back, you can work hard in the new normal. From the purpose of these measures, our policies and measures are mainly divided into two parts: the first part is the short-term policy fine-tuning and regulation policy adopted to deal with the short-term economic downside risks, and the second part is to adjust the industrial structure in the medium and long term. A series of reform measures taken to improve people's livelihood.

(1) In order to cope with the short-term economic downturn risks, the government has adopted a series of targeted fine-tuning measures to make precise efforts, not only to do macro-control, but also to minimize side effects.

1. Monetary policy area: Multiple targeted efforts to effectively reduce the financing costs of the real economy. On April 22, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of county-level rural commercial banks by 2 percentage points, and lowered the deposit reserve ratio of county-level rural cooperative banks by 0.5 percentage points. On June 9th, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points for commercial banks with a certain proportion of “three rural” and small and micro enterprise loans. On September 30, the central bank introduced a new mortgage policy: the first set of repayments and the first set of repayments. Banking financial institutions implement the first home loan policy for families who own a home and have settled the corresponding home loan. On November 21, the central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans. The one-year lending benchmark interest rate was lowered by 0.4 percentage points; the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points.

2. Financial and industrial policy areas: moderately accelerate the allocation of fiscal expenditures, and supervise and promote the construction of infrastructure projects. In June this year, the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Implementation of Budget Management of Financial Expenditure", requiring financial departments at all levels to strengthen expenditure budget management, speed up the payment of funds, do a good job in analyzing and evaluating expenditure budgets, and better promote economic restructuring. To protect and improve people's livelihood and to play a role in fiscal growth in economic growth. At the same time, the State Council sent 8 inspection components to some provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities), departments and units of the State Council, and carried out comprehensive supervision on the implementation of policies and measures to stabilize the reform and adjust the structure and benefit the people's livelihood.

(2) In order to adjust the structure, promote reform, and benefit the people's livelihood, the government has promoted a series of major reform measures, starting from the long-term perspective, starting from reality, and starting from the top, releasing the system dividend for China's medium and long-term economic development.

1. In terms of fiscal and tax reform, the “Overall Plan for Deepening the Reform of the Fiscal and Tax System” was reviewed and approved, and the financial reform curtain was opened. On June 30, the fiscal and taxation system reform plan was reviewed and approved. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting to review the "Overall Plan for Deepening the Reform of the Fiscal and Tax System", focusing on three aspects of reform: First, improve the budget management system, strengthen budget constraints, standardize government behavior, achieve effective supervision, and accelerate the establishment of a comprehensive, open, transparent and modern The second is to deepen the reform of the taxation system, optimize the taxation structure, improve the taxation function, stabilize the macro tax burden, promote taxation according to law, establish a taxation system that is conducive to scientific development, social equity, and market unification, and give full play to taxation to raise fiscal revenue. The third is to adjust the fiscal relationship between the central and local governments. Under the premise of maintaining the central and local income structure generally stable, further rationalize the central and local income division, and rationally define intergovernmental relations and Expenditure responsibility, promote the unity of power and responsibility, work and spend money, and establish a system in which the power of affairs and expenditure responsibility are compatible. At the same time, the State Council executive meeting decided to implement the reform of coal resource tax, and promote the clearing of taxes and taxes to reduce the burden on enterprises.

2. In terms of financial reform, the deposit insurance system of the banking system, the pilot scheme of individual tax deferred pension insurance for the insurance industry, and the pilot reform of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the stock issuance registration system are all major events. In terms of capital market construction, on May 9th, the State Council issued a number of opinions on further promoting the healthy development of the capital market, and actively and steadily promoted the reform of the stock issuance registration system. Establish a stock issuance system centered on information disclosure. In terms of the development of the insurance industry, the State Council announced the ten countries of the insurance industry on August 13. The State Council's opinions on accelerating the development of the modern insurance service industry, piloting a tax deferred pension insurance. On the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the Central Bank Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice, and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect transaction began on November 17, 2014. In terms of the construction of the bank deposit insurance system, the maximum limit for deposit insurance to be implemented on November 30 is RMB 500,000. According to the draft for comment, deposit insurance is subject to a limit payment of up to RMB 500,000.

3. In terms of decentralization and decentralization, this year, efforts have been made to further simplify or eliminate unnecessary administrative approvals and procedures, directly activate microeconomic entities and release institutional dividends. Transforming government functions and simplifying government decentralization are the first major events of the current government. By September of this year, China has cancelled and decentralized 7 batches of 632 administrative examinations and other matters. The investment items approved by the government at the central level have been reduced by 40% compared with 2013. Together with the 60% reduction in 2013, the number of approved projects at the central level in the previous two years will be reduced by about 76%. The shift period is crucial. The entrepreneurial environment of small and micro enterprises and modern service industry has further improved. Transforming government functions is an urgent need and major measure to maintain sustained and healthy economic development under the current situation. The simple decentralization of power is a breakthrough in changing government functions, and is an important move to release the reform dividend and build an upgraded version of China's economy. Through the simple decentralization of power, let go of the market "invisible hand" and make good use of the government's "visible hand." Let “push” and “pipe” be effectively combined to form a modern government management tool.

4. In terms of people's livelihood reform, reforms in the household registration system, education, medical care, sports, and social security have been promoted in an orderly manner. In terms of household registration and social security, on February 7, the State Council pointed out that it will merge the new rural social security and urban residents' social security, and establish a national unified urban and rural residents' basic old-age insurance system. On July 30, the State Council pointed out that a residence permit system would be established. The State Council further promoted the reform of the household registration system and removed the distinction between agricultural hukou and non-agricultural hukou. In the field of education, a series of reform measures such as the "landing" of the college entrance examination reform, the "acceleration" of teachers' rotation, and the severe punishment of teachers' "destruction of morality" have promoted the long-term healthy development of the education field. The reform of the medical system has made solid progress in accelerating the reform of public hospitals, actively promoting social medical treatment, solidly promoting the construction of a universal medical insurance system, consolidating and improving the basic drug system, new mechanisms for grassroots operations, and regulating the order of drug circulation. In terms of sports reform, on October 20, 2014, the State Council issued the “Several Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Sports Industry to Promote Sports Consumption”, deployed actively to expand the supply of sports products and services, and promoted the sports industry to become an important force for economic transformation and upgrading, and promoted the masses. Sports and competitive sports have developed in an all-round way, accelerating the construction of a strong sports country and continuously satisfying the growing sports demand of the people. The document proposes that by 2025, the sports industry system with reasonable layout, complete functions and complete categories will be basically established, sports products and services will be more abundant, market mechanisms will be continuously improved, consumer demand will become more vigorous, and the role of other industries will be significantly improved. With a scale of more than 5 trillion yuan, it has become an important force for promoting sustainable economic and social development.

5. The price, energy conservation and emission reduction and land reform have all introduced more specific plans this year and are gradually implemented. On the reform of resource factor prices, Premier Li Keqiang chaired the State Council executive meeting on November 15th, deployed to accelerate price reforms, and allowed the market to be more priced; decided to implement universal fee reductions and further reduce the burden on enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises. force. In terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, the State Council issued the “2014-2015 Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Low Carbon Development Action Plan” on May 15. According to the "Program", this year and next year, China will strive to achieve a unit GDP energy consumption, chemical oxygen demand, sulfur dioxide, ammonia nitrogen, nitrogen oxide emissions decreased by 3.9%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 5% or more The carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP fell by 4% and 3.5% respectively in two years. In terms of rural land system reform, on December 2, the Central Committee of the Central Government reformed the rural land system reform, pointing out that land acquisition, collective management construction land use, and homestead system reform are closely related, and the pilot work should be classified and implemented.

In general, these short-term macro-control policies and deep-term reforms in the medium and long-term positive for China's development have ensured a stable and healthy development of the Chinese economy in 2014, both to stabilize economic fluctuations and to further improve the economic structure and benefit. The majority of people's livelihood.

2014 policy evaluation and outlook for 2015

Looking back on 2014, the Party Central Committee and the State Council faced a complicated domestic and international situation, and launched a series of policy measures and related reforms, which played a crucial role in the short-term stable growth, promotion of structural adjustment and improvement of people's livelihood. In the context of the "three-phase superposition", we have always maintained a determined and calm response, taking into account short-term stability and long-term development, making the national economic and social development stable and orderly, and all undertakings are flourishing.

The short-term response to the downward pressure on the economy has always maintained its strength. The short-term macro-control policies that respond to the downward pressure on the economy have always adhered to the principle of orientation and moderation. Instead of “big flood irrigation”, the macro economy has always been in a reasonable range. In 2014, the use of targeted RRR cuts, asymmetric interest rate cuts, open market operations innovation, refinancing and other tools not only regulate the total amount of services, but also facilitate economic restructuring.

The medium and long-term reform measures in the fields of finance, taxation, finance, administration, decentralization, and people's livelihood have been steadily advanced. Among them, the objective of the "deepening fiscal and taxation system reform overall plan" in the field of finance and taxation is to establish a unified and complete, rule of law, open and transparent, efficient operation, which is conducive to optimizing resource allocation, maintaining market unity, promoting social equity, and achieving long-term sustainable development of the country. Financial system. In the financial sector, we have continued to improve the various systems of the capital market and establish a sound bank risk prevention system. We have made substantial progress in the opening of the capital account, the internationalization of the RMB, and the implementation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect system. In the reform of the people's livelihood, the reform of the household registration system, new urbanization, medical care and education system was actively promoted.

In the face of the upcoming 2015, we may face even more daunting challenges: First, there are still many risk uncertainties in the world economy, and some economies are affected by factors such as low oil prices or insufficient domestic economic growth. The economy will also face greater downward pressure; second, the domestic real estate market is unlikely to see a strong rebound in the short term; third, environmental protection pressures cause hard economic growth constraints; fourth, China's potential growth rate is steadily declining, and labor, land, capital and other supply factors are further increasing. Tight, the constraints on economic growth continue to strengthen.

In the future, only by further advancing reforms, releasing institutional dividends, and stimulating the vitality of micro-subjects can we achieve steady growth and structural adjustment in the new normal period, and strive for stability. We are confident in the progress of economic growth and reform next year:

The reforms and policy effects of 2014 were gradually released. In response to the downward pressure on the economy in 2014, China has introduced a series of targeted control policies and measures, including targeted RRR cuts, structural tax cuts, shantytown renovation, railway construction in the central and western regions, stabilization of foreign trade, expansion of information sports consumption, and implementation in the near future. Asymmetric interest rate cuts and infrastructure sectors have launched a number of projects that encourage social capital participation. The full emergence of these policy dividends will take some time, and the policy effects will be released steadily next year to help the economy grow steadily.

The development of emerging formats is more prosperous. With the simplification of administrative examination and approval and a series of policies that encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, China will achieve greater development in information consumption, pension consumption, and cultural leisure consumption in 2015. The development of this part of consumption and services will resist the impact of the decline in investment growth on the economy, maintaining stable economic growth and optimizing the economic structure.

The construction of major infrastructure areas remains a priority. The construction of transportation infrastructure in the central and western regions is still lagging behind, urban pipe networks and information and communication facilities still need to be improved, and water conservancy facilities and infrastructure in rural areas still have much room for improvement. At the same time, foreign strategies such as the “Belt and Road” will bring new investment demand. This part of the investment demand is a healthy and effective demand and will make an important contribution to economic growth next year.

State-owned enterprise reform, rural land system reform, deepening of fiscal and taxation system reform, and financial system reform will steadily enter the implementation stage next year. This will play a vital role in the long-term healthy development of our economy.

Looking back on 2014, we maintained a calm and courageous response under the grim situation of the “three phases” superposition, launched some prudent macro-control policies, and achieved steady progress in various reforms; thinking about the future, under the new normal, we should Under the premise of continuing to maintain a basically stable macroeconomic situation, we will actively promote various reforms, rely on reforms to further release China's institutional dividends, and realize our "Chinese Dream." (Author: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

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