Markets outside Europe and the United States are growing, Africa is a new blue ocean, and the recovery driven by domestic demand is stronger, with orders from the three traditional export industries picking up. However, for most exporters, there is no sign of recovery. The so-called order pick-up is just that the situation has not continued to deteriorate. The recovery of individual companies cannot represent the recovery of the industry. The recovery of the bumpy small business recovery is more reflected in the large enterprises, and a large number of small processing plants can feel the number of orders picking up. Dongguan, known as the "world workshop", a large number of small processing plants can feel the plunge of the order warmer. According to the data from the Economic and Trade Commission, according to the nature of the enterprise, the total export value of the three-capital enterprises in January-July 2009 was the highest, reaching 17.267 billion US dollars, the total export value of state-owned enterprises was 5.961 billion US dollars, and the total export value of collective enterprises was 535 million US dollars. The total amount is 5.006 billion US dollars. From the data, it can be judged that the proportion of GDP and export trade generated by a large number of small processing plants is quite limited. “The recovery in orders is concentrated in the big business and consumer goods industries.†Companies that survived this round of reshuffles began to find that orders were being concentrated in the hands of quality suppliers. In the case of a reduction in total volume, orders for large and medium-sized enterprises will pick up, and small businesses will have to deal with fewer orders. The reason why small enterprises do not have the opportunity before, there are two main reasons. First, the capacity of large enterprises in the past is limited, which is invisibly diverted to small enterprises. Second, in the case of sufficient orders, large enterprises begin to specialize, so some parts and components The processing is subcontracted to small businesses, which means that often a large group of small businesses survive around one or a few large companies. When big companies face a crisis of survival, small businesses are even more difficult to share. The famous "two-eighth rule" is also applicable to enterprises. The corporate structure presents a typical pyramidal distribution. Among the large and small enterprises of nearly 500,000 households, only a small number of high-end advantageous enterprises are the main targets for the current round of order recovery. Most of the middle enterprises are mostly meager and basically at a loss. The edge; the majority of the rest, located at the bottom of the pyramid, this group of enterprises accounted for more than 80% of the number of enterprises, is the hardest hit area before the company shut down or collapse. The volume of exports is increasing, but the profits of the industry are decreasing sharply, and there is a trend of further reduction. In order to achieve a certain scale of production to maintain the normal operation of the production line, some companies made some concessions in terms of unit price. Today's customers are mostly old customers, and new customers are difficult to develop because they cannot accept price increases. Customers are more and more selective. From the perspective of quality, traditional industries such as clothing and furniture, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and other countries are competitors of Chinese counterparts. The quality of these products is not much different. But in terms of cost, these countries are even lower. For example, a T-shirt, even the cheapest, costs seven or eight yuan in Yiwu, which has the lowest cost in China, and only $3 in Bangladesh. Industry profits have become lower and lower. In the future, the industry will undergo a major reshuffle and begin a round of survival of the fittest. Good companies will stay, and poor companies will disappear from the market. Just seasonal growth? When the outside world gathers their eyes on the words “returning orders†and “export recoveryâ€, people from all walks of life are questioning the “recoveryâ€. The town of Dalingshan, which is known as the first town in China’s furniture export market, is still a piece of land. The bleakness of Jinyun, bankruptcy and bankruptcy have become commonplace. For the company to receive orders in the near future, but the factory can not continue, it needs to close down. The European and American markets that the domestic market relies on do not really start to recover. However, the goods on the shelves and warehouses are almost sold. Together with the seasonal change, some new new products need to be added, so the order will be issued again. To the factory in China. The economy will be more difficult, and spending will be reduced. Normal consumer spending will not be reduced. The increase in orders was attributed to the arrival of the traditional peak season. Moreover, these orders are urgent orders, usually two or three days in advance, the number of products is not much, you have to wait for the sale and then add additional orders. In June 2009, the Guangdong Provincial Foreign Trade Department surveyed 105 key enterprises in the province, showing that 70.2% of enterprises' export orders fell, 21.15% of enterprises' export orders were flat, and only 8.5% of enterprises' export orders increased slightly, but in Most of the orders are mainly short-term orders, small orders and urgent orders within 3 months. From macro to micro information, there is no indication that the current order growth is not sustainable. This may be a seasonal fragile recovery, and when the real recovery will come is still a question. If you use the most intuitive data to show economic recovery - industrial electricity, there are signs of recovery. On August 3, Dongguan's electricity load reached a record high for the first time this year, reaching 9.61 million kilowatts, an increase of 0.7% from the highest load last year. On the 25th of August, Zhang Ping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, made a cautious study on foreign trade exports in the second half of the year. He believes that “the overall situation is that the world economy is still in a recession. Under this circumstance, China’s foreign trade situation will be very severe. "The traditional export season is coming, and the order pick-up is normal. The year-on-year growth was mainly due to non-European and American regions. From macro to micro information, there is no indication that the current order growth is not sustainable. Regardless of whether the foreign trade enterprise is waiting for the type of spring, or whether it continues to hibernate and expects the true spring type, its own cold and warm is closely related to its industry and the economic structure of the region. It is a good way to hold the spring for a long time through structural transformation.
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