Abstract Sino-US relations have entered a new stage, and we may need to be prepared to cope with the partial deterioration of Sino-US economic relations. If Hillary is elected, security issues will become more prominent in Sino-US relations; if Trump is elected, trade issues are likely to become the focus of conflict. ...
Sino-US relations have entered a new stage, and we may need to be prepared to cope with the partial deterioration of Sino-US economic relations. If Hillary is elected, security issues will become more prominent in Sino-US relations; if Trump is elected, trade issues are likely to become the focus of conflict. The Chinese economy has been deeply integrated into the global economy, and political and economic changes in economies such as Europe and the United States tend to have a significant impact on China's foreign economy. For example, the current US elections, the Brexit and other events have more or less affected China. China's economic restructuring is still in a difficult “time of implementation†and is still under pressure in terms of foreign trade, capital flows and exchange rate policies. People are used to describing the set-up of Sino-US relations with "nothing is good, but it is not bad." What is the current trend of conservative right-wing and isolationism revealed by the US elections, and how will it affect US-China economic relations?
In fact, no matter which candidate is elected, the first question encountered is how to revive the US economy. Although the US economy has performed better this year, it still faces problems such as low growth rate and low labor participation rate. It has not really recovered.
From the perspective of stimulating economic growth, the most worthwhile thing to do now is to increase investment in infrastructure, education, research and development, etc. This will not only stabilize the growth momentum in the short term, but also lay the foundation for long-term sustainable development. But such a policy is difficult to implement.
From the perspective of fiscal policy, there is a great voice in the United States against the expansion of public spending: on the one hand, many people think that expanding public expenditure is equivalent to government intervention; on the other hand, the public is very worried about the sustainability of public debt, and the tea party is even more It is against all tax increases.
From the perspective of monetary policy, quantitative easing policy needs to be gradually withdrawn. But no matter how to quit, no one has a good policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will end his term in 2018. Prior to this, the game surrounding the nomination and appointment of the next Fed chairman will be very intense.
From the current situation, the probability of TPP passing smoothly is only about 50%. If Trump is elected, the TPP may die from this; if Hillary is elected, she will push the TPP to pass. However, due to changes in policies and various uncertainties after the US presidential election, global trade protectionism will rise and may further affect exchange rate fluctuations. On the whole, globalization is on the verge. WTO negotiations are struggling, regional free trade agreements will also set off, and unilateral trade policies will be more common. This has a negative impact on China's trade congress, and China's exports are likely to encounter more trade protection policies.
The exchange rate issue has always been a more sensitive political topic. From the perspective of economics, China's export income elasticity is greater than price elasticity, which means that the main factors affecting China's exports are the increase in foreign income and the willingness to purchase Chinese products, while the price competitiveness affected by exchange rate is relatively minor. the elements of.
It is foreseeable that the United States will always regard the exchange rate as a target. A new phenomenon that has recently emerged is that not only is China afraid of floating, but other countries are also afraid of excessive volatility of the renminbi. The US attitude toward the RMB exchange rate is in a dilemma: it requires the renminbi to be more market-oriented and unwilling to let the renminbi depreciate sharply. Perhaps the future global monetary system will gradually shift to a more stable exchange rate arrangement, but this requires major reforms.
The grievances between the United States and Saudi Arabia are more due to geopolitical factors. The United States feels that the front line is too long and hopes to shrink, so it will exert more "balance hand" strategy in the Middle East. Due to insecurity, Saudi Arabia hopes to increase the independence of its major decisions, which can be seen in its recent series of policies.
The international currency status of the US dollar will not be challenged too much in the short term. The changes in its balance of payments are largely affected by economic growth. If the US economy strengthens, imports will increase, but exports may not increase simultaneously. The adjustment of US fiscal policy is also affected by many factors, including the speed of economic growth, political polarization, and the polarization between rich and poor, which will affect its fiscal revenue and expenditure policy.
Sino-US relations have entered a new stage, and we may need to be prepared to cope with the partial deterioration of Sino-US economic relations. If Hillary is elected, security issues will become more prominent in Sino-US relations; if Trump is elected, trade issues are likely to become the focus of conflict. The biggest risk after Trump's election is that US policy will become more uncertain, and this uncertainty is prone to misunderstandings and conflicts. The level of mutual trust between China and the United States is declining. Dealing with Sino-US relations should adopt more crisis management ideas, let go of small frictions, focus on preventing major potential conflicts, increase the predictability of both sides' behaviors, and be more objective and clear-cut on the differences between interests and positions. understanding. (Text/Sina Finance columnist He Fanpan Guzhiku Academic Committee Chairman, Research Fellow, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.)
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