International steel market continues to rise and fall

Although the international steel market in the first half of April was mixed, the overall performance was up and down. Among them, the steel market in Asia is divided and the price of steel in mainland China continues to weaken, while the prices of some varieties in India, Taiwan, and China are steadily rising; the steel market in Europe is basically stable, and the price is basically the same as in March; the steel market in the Americas is not rising or falling. First, the North American steel market remains weak, while the steel market trends in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina in South America are relatively firm. From the perspective of major varieties, the long products in April are still better than the plate. To this end, the international steel market performed better in the second quarter than in the first quarter.

Asian steel market: Although still strong and weak and mixed, some signs of strength in the steel market have emerged. At present, except for the mainland of China, most regions are optimistic about the trend of the steel market in the second quarter.

In terms of flat products: market prices have mixed. In India, domestic quotations for hot coils are basically stable. Current ex-works prices for 3mm and above coils are between Rs.3.2-3.3 million/ton ($514-530/ton). Some local analysts said that although the price of HRC exports from China to India has recently risen, buyers generally expect the price increase to be unsustainable. In addition, the recent HRC resources from Japan and South Korea have strong price advantages. Therefore, buyers are not Eager to purchase, so the overall performance is stable. In South Korea, Hyundai Steel decided to cut sales discounts to local buyers due to poor corporate profits. Compared to the discount provided in March, the reduction was about 10,000 won/ton (US$9/ton). It is reported that Dongkuk also made a similar decision. In Japan, NSSC announced that the base price of austenitic cold coils remained unchanged in April and the price of ferritic cold coils was raised by 5,000 yen per ton. In Taiwan, China National Steel Corporation announced the reduction in the prices of HRC and COLD coils in April, with a reduction of TWD 1000/tonne and TWD 800/tonne. After adjustment, the new listing price for hot rolled coil was NT$12,350/t; the listing price for cold rolled coil was RMB133,500/t. At the beginning of April, the mainland China hot plate export quotation basically remained stable. Some international steel traders said that although the recent domestic steel price increases, export prices have also risen, but because overseas buyers do not accept price increases, market transactions are still relatively light, so prices are basically stable.

In terms of long products, market prices are mixed. In Taiwan, China, benefiting from the slight increase in international scrap prices, Fengxing Steel has decided to continue to maintain the stability of rebar prices. At present, the ex-factory price of 13mm rebar is NT 14,700/t (US$470/t). Some steel makers said that the order status in March was the best in the first quarter, and it seems that the situation in April will be more optimistic. In South Korea, due to the recovery of the construction industry in spring, the demand for rebar in South Korea was slightly warmer, but H-beams did not perform well. According to estimates by industry insiders, the import volume of H-shaped steel (including carbon steel and special steel) in South Korea will reach 80,000 tons in March, an increase of nearly 60,000 tons compared with February, which has exacerbated market pressure. At the beginning of April, the listed price of H-beams for Hyundai Steel was 820,000 won/ton ($739/ton), which has been stable for three consecutive months. In India, steel mills are expected to increase their demand for steel products as the central government may restart some stagnant infrastructure projects. As a result, they are generally cautiously optimistic about the market in the second quarter. Affected by this, Indian mills are trying to increase rebar prices. According to sources, this is the first time that prices have risen after experiencing a six-month price drop. Among them, EAF steelmakers have raised their quotations, and integrated steelmakers are also trying to increase their quotations. At present, the taxable price of domestic rebar is approximately Rs 36,500/t (US$587/t), rising by Rs 500-700/t. At the beginning of April, China's long products export performance was in line with that of the coils. The price was basically the same as that of the previous month, but the market transactions were still light.

In terms of trade relations: (1) Indian Minister of Mines Narendra SinghTomar stated on April 1st: “India's steel companies are currently under tremendous pressure. The government and companies will pay close attention to the trend of steel imports. We have submitted an application to the financial department to request an increase in import tariffs”; (2) The Ministry of Finance of Indonesia recently announced that in order to increase the competitiveness of the domestic steel pipe import industry, the Ministry of Finance decided to cancel the temporary provision of 81% of the imports of seamless steel pipes imported from China, Japan, South Korea and Singapore from June 12 this year. Anti-dumping duties.

Brief comment: According to the operating situation combined with the fundamental situation, the Asian steel market may gradually stabilize and rebound from April.

European steel market: After more than a month of strengthening, the European steel market in the first half of April was running smoothly and the market price was roughly the same as last month.

Flat products: The market price is generally stable. In southern Europe, market supply was reduced due to the fact that Italy's main steel producer Ilva Corp. had a cold-rolled schedule that was full and most of the resources were for internal use only. In addition, factors such as the low price of imported cold coils from China and other countries and the fact that the delivery date is basically the same as that of domestic steel mills have prompted Italian buyers to start shifting their procurement of imported cold coil resources to reduce costs. At present, Italy ex-works prices for coils delivered in June are €390-395/t, ex-works prices for hot-dip galvanized sheets are €440/t ex-works, and ex-works prices for cold coils delivered in July are €470-480/t ex-works. In line with the price in March, only a slight increase in the price of individual specifications. It is reported that China's cold coil export prices for August-September delivery are 445 Euro/ton (CIF), which is still competitive. Some analysts said that due to the short delivery time of cold rolled steel products from domestic steel mills, the delivery date of some resources is likely to be postponed until August, when the Italian market will enter the summer vacation season, and the arrival resources will only be available in September. The market is for sale, so this is not much different from the delivery of Chinese resources in August-September. In East and West Europe, ex-factory prices for coiled coils in the German Ruhr Region remained at 405-415 euros/ton in April, unchanged from the previous month. In Russia, due to the weak domestic steel demand, coupled with the strengthening of the ruble against the US dollar, steel mills to stimulate the market demand to rise, and maintain export competitiveness, decided to continue to lower domestic steel prices. It is reported that in April Rose's domestic hot coil offer fell about 490 rubles / ton (8.5 US dollars / ton), 2mm hot coil offer is 2.53-2.58 million rubles / ton (about 442-451 US dollars / ton), 4mm hot coil quoted as 2.47-2.52 million rubles / ton (approximately 431-440 US dollars / ton). In addition, the Finnish company Outokumpu announced a reduction in the surcharge for the 300 series stainless flat rolled products in April. After adjustment, the 304 material surcharge will be reduced by 4 EUR/t to 1,320 EUR/t, and the 316 material surcharge will be lowered by 26 EUR/t to 1,897 EUR/t.

Long products: The market price is basically stable. In northern Europe, the rebar market remained stable, but buyers are waiting for scrap prices in April. Sources said that scrap price negotiations may start in the middle of the year, so the price trend is not clear in the first half of the year, and most buyers mostly delay purchases. Some steel traders said that due to the weak market demand, it is expected that only scrap prices will increase the price of rebar. Currently, German steel mills offer rebar prices of 440-450 Euros/tonne, and French rebars are priced at 420-430 Euros/tonne. In Russia, due to declining demand, the price of domestic rebar in Russia has been falling for five consecutive weeks. The current quotations have fallen by 850 roubles/ton (15 US$/ton) compared to the middle of March, and they have been reported at 2.26–22,900 roubles/ton (392 -US$397/ton), but US dollar quotes still rose slightly.

In terms of trade relations, on March 29th, the EU finalized the antidumping sunset review of steel fasteners originally manufactured in China. The cancellation of anti-dumping measures against fasteners originating in Chinese steel products would result in dumping and The damage to the industry occurred again and it was decided to continue to take anti-dumping measures against the products involved in the case in China.

Comment: According to the operating situation combined with fundamentals, it is expected that the European steel market will continue its smooth operation in the near future.

The American steel market: From a regional point of view, the North American steel market remains weak, and the South American steel market remains firm. From the perspective of the trends of major categories of products, the price trend of long products is significantly better than that of sheet steel.

Flat products: Market prices continue to decline. In the United States, sheet prices fell again. At present, the mid-western steel mills' base prices for hot coils are reported at US$460-470/short ton, which is a month-on-month decline of US$10/short ton. The base price for cold coils remains stable at US$595-605/short ton. For the market outlook, most of the industry expects that the price of sheet metal will probably bottom out in the next month or so, and once the delivery date is extended to May or even June, steel prices may bottom out. In Mexico, due to the weak market demand, the steel mills' price increase has not been fully accepted by the market, so there is only a slight reversal of flat steel prices. At present, the ex-gratia exemption price for hot rolled coil is 1.01-1.02 million pesos/ton, and the exemption price for cold rolled coil is 1.16-17.70 million pesos/ton. The ex-factory price for hot-dip galvanized sheet is not included. 1.32-1.34 million pesos/ton. In Argentina, at the end of March, Argentine mills announced a 2% reduction in flat product prices, which is the second time this year that Argentinean steelmakers have lowered flat steel prices. At present, the ex-factory price of 3.0-9.52mm hot coil is 896-945 US dollars / ton without tax, and the ex-factory price of 0.7-1.73mm cold-rolled coil is 980-1024 US dollars / ton without tax, which is about 20 US dollars / ton lower than before.

In terms of long products, market prices are mixed. In the United States, the ex-factory price of the profile fell significantly in April from $10-20/short ton to $695-710/short ton. Some market analysts said that weak domestic market demand and low prices of imported resources are important reasons for the pressure on the market. In Mexico, due to the depreciation of the peso against the U.S. dollar, the increase in rebar prices announced by Mexican mills in early March was only partially realized. At present, the non-tax ex-delivery price is 9300-9600 pesos/ton (610-630 US dollars/ton), which is 100 pesos/ton higher than that at the end of March. It is reported that the target price for new orders for steel mills in April is 10,000 pesos/ton. However, some buyers think that due to the decline in the prices of international raw materials, there is no sign of recovery in the demand situation in April, and the excess supply, the market may resist the steel mills price increases. In Brazil, rebar mills continue to raise prices. Brazilian longboard producer Gerdau and Amy plan to increase the rebar offer by 12% in April. After the price increase, the ex-factory price without tax is about Rs 2259-2431/t. Some steel makers said that this is Brazil's second increase in rebar quotation this year. At the end of January, Brazil had raised the rebar price by about 8%. The main reason for this price increase was the devaluation of the Brazilian Real against the US dollar and the squeeze on the profits of the steel industry. However, most dealers stated that given the weak market demand, new long products producers such as CSN and GVdoBrasil are likely to lower prices in order to increase their competitiveness. Therefore, the price hikes announced by Gairdow and Amy should be difficult for the market to accept. In Argentina, long products prices rose slightly. At present, the ex-factory price of 8-12mm rebar is 940-960 US dollars / ton, the ex-factory price of 6mm rebar is 990 US dollars / ton, both rose by 20 US dollars / ton. However, some market participants predict that currency devaluation, high inflation rate, and lack of new construction projects may drag on demand, and late-stage price rises will be weak.

In terms of trade relations: (1) On March 31, the Canadian Border Service Agency issued an announcement stating that it had decided to initiate anti-dumping and anti-subsidy reinvestigation on steel gratings originating in or imported from China to update steel gratings imported from China. (2) On March 31, the US Department of Commerce made an anti-dumping administrative re-examination final ruling on the steel wire racks in China: Shanghai Huili Hanger Co., Ltd.: 14.53%; China: 187.25%; (3 On April 7, the US Department of Commerce finalized the anti-dumping sunset review of China's oil pipe, saying that if the anti-dumping measures were to be cancelled, damages of the products involved in the US domestic industry would continue to occur at a dumping margin of 99.14%.

Comment: According to the situation of the operation situation combined with fundamentals, the recent steel market in the Americas will continue to rise and fall.