Prospects for the Development of China's Industrial Structure Adjustment

In 2013, with the gradual exertion of policy effects such as overcapacity, promotion of mergers and acquisitions, promotion of independent innovation, technological transformation and upgrading, and promotion of industrial transfer, the industrial structure was continuously optimized, and the quality and efficiency of growth were gradually improved. In the second half of the year, the industrial recovery trend was obvious. From August to October, it returned to the growth range of more than 10%. Among them, the manufacturing industry increased by 11.4% in October, 1.1 percentage points more than the industry. From January to September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 40,425.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, which reversed the unfavorable situation of the decline in the profit growth of industrial enterprises in the same period of 2012. However, there are also problems such as a slowdown in manufacturing investment growth and a situation of overcapacity. It is expected that in 2014, driven by a series of reforms and deployments in the economic field, industrial restructuring will be further accelerated, laying the foundation for the basic realization of industrialization by 2020.

Basic judgment on the situation in 2014

(1) High-tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries continue to maintain rapid growth

In 2014, under the guidance of innovation-driven strategy, the cross-integration of high-tech manufacturing industry and seven strategic emerging industry technologies will continue to accelerate, especially the promotion and application of new-generation information technology will promote high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, new materials, etc. The deep integration of technology and information technology has promoted group breakthroughs in high-tech manufacturing and emerging industry technologies, providing technical support and support for the rapid development of high-tech manufacturing and emerging industries. 2014 is also a crucial year for implementing the development planning of emerging industries in various regions. Most regions will continue to increase efforts to support the development of high-tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries in order to ensure the completion of the 2015 planning goals.

(II) Resolving the contradiction of overcapacity and driving the structural adjustment of key areas

The problem of overcapacity in some industrial sectors in China since 2012 has seriously hindered the steady and rapid development of the industrial economy. In accordance with the central government's "four batches" of governance requirements, various departments have adopted measures such as controlling increments, promoting backward production capacity withdrawal, and expanding domestic demand to resolve overcapacity contradictions. These measures have also effectively promoted the adjustment of industrial structure. In 2014, driven by policy measures such as controlling increments, promoting backward production capacity, expanding domestic demand, and mergers and acquisitions, not only the overcapacity conflict is expected to be initially resolved in 2014, but the pace of structural adjustment in key areas will also resolve overcapacity. The further implementation of policy measures has been accelerating.

(III) Enterprise mergers and acquisitions in key areas remain active

In 2013, China’s efforts to promote mergers and acquisitions in enterprises have increased. On January 22, 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 12 ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Merger and Reorganization of Key Industry Enterprises” to accelerate the promotion of the merger and reorganization of nine key industries such as steel and cement. As the "Guidelines for Mergers and Reorganizations" require key industries such as steel, cement, automobiles, and ships to complete the established merger and reorganization targets by the end of 2015. At present, there is still a certain gap between the industrial concentration of these industries, the number and size of large enterprise groups, and the requirements of the “Guiding Opinions on Mergers and Reorganizations”. In order to ensure the smooth completion of these goals, in 2014, all localities will continue to increase the promotion of mergers and acquisitions, and mergers and acquisitions in key areas will continue to be active.

(4) The pace of industrial transfer in the central and western regions is further accelerated

Since the release of the “Industry Transfer Guidance Catalogue (2012)” in 2012, the infrastructure construction of transportation, energy and information networks in the central and western regions has been continuously improved and a series of industrial transfer docking activities in 2012-2013 has accelerated textiles, machinery, and Traditional industries such as energy, chemicals, and building materials have shifted to the central and western regions. Strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and equipment manufacturing in the central and western regions have gradually embarked on the fast track of development. The main performance is that the growth rate of investment in the central and western regions is significantly higher than that in the eastern coastal areas with high economic development level. The trend of industrial transfer has been very obvious. In 2014, under the impetus of the central “Silk Road Economic Belt”, “Southwest Bridgehead” and “Fuxin European Channel”, the pace of undertaking industrial transfer in the central and western regions will not slow down, and the accelerated transfer of industries will also Guaranteed the rapid development of industry in the central and western regions.

Several issues that need attention

(1) The return on investment in manufacturing industry is low, and the tendency of capital to break away from reality

Manufacturing is an important pillar to promote the steady and rapid growth of China's industrial economy, and investment is one of the main guarantees for driving manufacturing growth. Since 2013, the growth rate of manufacturing investment has shown signs of slowing down. An important factor leading to a slowdown in manufacturing investment growth is the slowdown in the growth of private investment in manufacturing, and the deeper reason is that manufacturing returns are low, and private capital is underpowered by manufacturing.

As the rising house prices are difficult to fundamentally reverse in 2014, and the financial sector will gradually increase the opening of private capital, the cost of production factors will still have greater pressure to increase, leading to the stagnation of private capital in 2014. The momentum is still strong. Private investment is the most active part of promoting China's economic development and accelerating industrial restructuring, especially in technological transformation, mergers and acquisitions. Insufficient private investment, manufacturing companies will be more difficult to finance. Coupled with the current downward pressure on the economy, the real economic environment is not optimistic, and manufacturing companies that lack financial support are reluctant to invest and dare to invest. This will slow down the process of technological transformation and mergers and acquisitions, thus affecting the progress of industrial restructuring.

(II) The problem of redundant construction and disorderly layout of emerging industries is worthy of attention

Under the stimulation of policies such as the cultivation of strategic emerging industries, emerging industries such as wind power equipment and polysilicon have already had a tendency to overcapacity. The seven strategic emerging industries, such as new energy vehicles, new materials, biomedicine, new generation information technology, and new energy, are the growth points of the new economy (310,358), which is set by the State Council to ensure stable and rapid economic growth in the future. In order to achieve early performance, local governments have stepped up their efforts and accelerated new projects, resulting in serious construction and regional homogenization. Due to the deadline for the completion of the planning of emerging industries in various regions, it is scheduled to be in 2015, and there is still a certain gap between the scale of emerging industries in most regions and the planning goals. Therefore, the layout will be accelerated in 2014 to accelerate the launch of emerging industry projects. This kind of swarming layout and project model will further expand the scope of overcapacity industries in emerging industries.

(3) The secondary pollution problem in the process of industrial transfer is worthy of vigilance

Since 2013, under the vigorous promotion of national policies, developed regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong and Jiangsu are stepping up the implementation of the “cage-for-bird” measures to accelerate the promotion of labor-intensive processing industries and heavy chemical industries that rely heavily on resources and energy. The energy industry is shifting to the central and western regions. The labor force in the central and western regions is obvious, and at the same time it is a rich place for energy and mineral resources. It is natural to undertake labor-intensive processing industries and heavy chemical industries in the eastern region. However, most of the leading industries in the central and western regions are mainly heavy chemical industry and energy industry. The technical level of enterprises is generally low, and the investment in energy conservation and environmental protection is insufficient. The proportion of backward production capacity is large, and environmental pollution and ecological damage are more serious. In the eastern region, the relatively backward heavy chemical industry, energy industry and some labor-intensive processing industries will be transferred to the central and western regions, which is likely to cause secondary pollution in the central and western regions. For example, some central and western regions are actively introducing heavy chemical industries such as coal chemical industry and steel, which will become an obstacle to maintaining a good ecological environment.

(4) The living environment of SMEs has not improved significantly

In 2013, under the promotion of a series of national policies to promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs ushered in a rare opportunity for development. However, due to the downward pressure on the economy, rising labor and production factor costs, lower product export prices, fewer orders, and other aspects, as well as loan financing, financial support, industry access, fair use of elements, and the role of investment entities, there are still some systems. Sexual barriers, the living environment of SMEs did not improve significantly. In particular, in 2013, the bank experienced a “money shortage”, which led to a significant increase in the proportion of credit invested by banks in SMEs.

Countermeasures should be taken

(1) Intensify efforts to encourage private capital to enter the manufacturing industry

First, gradually break the administrative monopoly of telecommunications, aviation, electric power, petroleum, railway and other industries, support the entry of private capital, and promote the diversification of investment entities. The second is to effectively implement the “new and old 36” of the non-public economy and improve the financing environment for private enterprises, especially the private enterprise financing environment. The third is to accelerate the reform of the investment system, effectively cancel and decentralize the approval power of private capital to enter the manufacturing industry, optimize the necessary approval process, and create more convenient conditions for private capital to enter the manufacturing industry. The fourth is to speed up the clean-up and revision of laws and regulations, departmental regulations and policy documents that restrict private capital investment, strengthen the protection of private property rights, and create a legal and policy environment conducive to private capital entering the manufacturing industry.

(2) Establishing and improving the growth mechanism of science and technology investment with enterprises as the mainstay

Establish and improve the growth mechanism of science and technology investment with the continuous investment of enterprises as the main body, the stable investment of the state as the guarantee, and the active investment of private capital. First, strengthen the subjective position of enterprises in science and technology investment, and enhance the motivation of enterprises to invest in scientific research. Through financial subsidies, tax reductions, interest subsidies and other measures to encourage support companies to increase investment in research and development and technological transformation, the focus is to use a certain proportion of financial support for scientific research projects for corporate science and technology investment incentives and support for technology-based SMEs R&D activities. The second is to establish a stable growth mechanism for the state's financial input to support scientific and technological innovation, industrial technology transformation and upgrading, and the development of high-tech industries. The third is to increase the investment in scientific and technological innovation, industrial technology transformation and upgrading of high-tech enterprises, support the industry authorities to cooperate with the four major banks and financial institutions, and establish government-led funds and private capital to jointly support technological upgrading and upgrading of enterprises. Venture capital mechanism.

(3) Establish and improve a long-term mechanism to resolve the contradiction of overcapacity

The first is to improve the market competition mechanism. Accelerate the establishment of a factor price formation mechanism that reflects the scarcity of resources; improve the market-oriented resource allocation mechanism; improve the non-public economic market access mechanism, with a focus on establishing a fair market access system and creating an environment for fair competition in the non-public economy. Second, to promote backward production capacity to exit the market in an orderly manner by closing behind small enterprises, eliminating backward production capacity, promoting mergers and acquisitions, encouraging enterprises to invest overseas, and guiding enterprises to transform and transform production. The third is to establish a policy system for resolving excess capacity based on industry access, financial regulation, fiscal and taxation support, differentiated prices, and land management, and strictly enforce environmental protection and energy enforcement supervision. The fourth is to establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism for overcapacity in key industries. In particular, it is necessary to establish a monitoring and early warning system for overcapacity in strategic emerging industries, provide timely warning of overcapacity in emerging industries, and strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control, restricting localization in emerging industries. Investment behavior.

(4) Exploring a new mechanism for industrial green transfer

Strictly follow the requirements of the national main functional area planning and construction of ecological civilization, contact the ecological environment capacity of each region, rely on the resource endowment conditions and comparative advantages of each region, explore the new mechanism of industrial green transfer, and avoid secondary pollution of industrial transfer. The first is to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control of industrial transfer. According to the main functional area planning and the state's overall positioning of industrial development in the eastern, central and western regions, the industrial transfer activities in the eastern, central and western regions are regulated and coordinated, and the Maji Chemical Industry Project and other “two high and one capital” projects in the restricted development zone and the prohibited development zone are strictly prohibited. "project. The second is to strictly prohibit the transfer of backward production capacity to the central and western regions. The outdated equipment that has been eliminated in the eastern region should be completely demolished so as not to be transferred to the central and western regions; projects transferred to the central and western regions should be strictly evaluated and evaluated, and a one-vote veto system for energy evaluation and environmental assessment should be implemented. The third is to do a good job of compliance review of industrial policies. Conduct conformity review of industries transferred to the central and western regions. For projects that do not comply with industrial policies, the relevant departments should be coordinated to prohibit the transfer of the industry.

(V) Further improve and optimize the living environment of SMEs

First, implement the implementation of various national policies and policies to promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and reduce the burden of taxation and fees for small and medium-sized enterprises. The second is to improve the financing environment for SMEs and reduce the financing costs of enterprises. Exploring the interest subsidy and risk compensation system for SME loans, formulating interest subsidies for SME loans according to industrial policies and plans, and providing appropriate risk compensation for SME loans. The third is to strengthen policy support and guidance for the transformation and upgrading of SMEs. The fourth is to increase the training of industrial workers and entrepreneurs, and cooperate with industry associations and other relevant third-party institutions and universities to conduct joint training for industrial workers and entrepreneurs, improve the overall quality of industrial workers and cultivate innovative entrepreneurial entrepreneurs.

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