Abstract Since the rebound in May, Lun Copper has been oscillating between the 20th and 60th lines. On May 17, Luneng copper closed at $7310/ton, rebounding slightly by 0.64%. Affected by the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shanghai copper market 09 contract rose late, currently around 30...
Since the rebound in May, Lun Copper has been oscillating between the 20th and 60th lines. On May 17, Luneng copper closed at $7310/ton, rebounding slightly by 0.64%. Affected by the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shanghai copper market 09 contract rose late, currently around the 30-day line shock consolidation, the short-term trend is facing a directional choice. In terms of copper supply, Freeport Indonesia has suspended production due to tunnel collapse and has become a major factor in short-term pull. However, the interference factors of local mines cannot prevent the reality of the global copper mine expansion. From the perspective of China's refined copper market, the supply of scrap copper in the spot area is tight, resulting in an increase in the absorption of good copper. The supply of copper is now decreasing, and the premium is rising all the way. By the end of the week, the spot premium has reached 90 yuan / ton. But the strength of the spot support is questionable.
In terms of Chinese imports, the latest data from China Customs shows that from January to April, China’s cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper reached 1.263 million tons, a decrease of 27.2% year-on-year. Since the market’s doubts about China’s trade data, the Chinese banking industry The copper trade credit has been tightened, and small importers are under pressure. It is foreseeable that the amount of copper imported from China will continue to decline. This part of the inventory will remain in the western market, making it more difficult to destock.
China itself is not short of copper in the short term. In April, China's refined copper output increased by 14% year-on-year to 558,000 tons, second only to the historical high of 580,000 tons set in December last year. The cumulative production of refined copper in January-April climbed 11% to 2.1 million tons. Obviously, after March, the tight pressure on China's scrap copper supply was once the main factor in the rise of copper prices at the end of April. In April 2013, China's scrap copper imports decreased by 2.8% from the previous month and decreased by 4.6% year-on-year. However, production data for April showed that the supply pressure of scrap copper did not inhibit the incentives for smelters to increase production. This is mainly due to the recent focus of copper concentrate spot TC to maintain a high level of 70-75 US dollars / ton, the highest turnover TC nearly 80 US dollars / ton. However, some smelters believe that the TC rising factor will gradually fade, the TC upside will not be too large, and may even fall back to the long single TC level, and the smelter will maintain high output under high TC/RC.
At the macro level, the recent expectation that the Fed will launch QE is gradually strengthened. The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May was 83.7, higher than the 76.4 in April and higher than the economist's forecast of 78. The data is getting better, the US dollar index is expected to maintain, and the base metals will continue to be under pressure. Currently, hedge funds are turning to short-term US 10-year Treasury bonds. The rise in long-term government bond yields will limit the strength of commodity prices. In addition, Fitch downgraded the Slovenian sovereign rating. It shows that the Eurozone is still the risk point of the market, and it can detonate the safe-haven demand of funds at any time.
On the Chinese side, although economic growth has slowed down, it is in line with the central government's expected target. The National Bureau of Statistics announced today that the residential sales prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide continued to rise in April, up 4.9% year-on-year. Under the pressure of real estate market prices to rebound, the expectation of interest rate cuts has been and will continue to fall, unless the second quarter's data is far less than expected, it is possible to reverse the current monetary policy.
In addition, the recent market speculation is expected in China's urbanization construction. But in fact, the market has already reached a consensus on this issue to achieve medium- and long-term policy adjustments that are greater than short-term stimulus. And the announcement of the series of urbanization policies will only propose specific reforms at the important meeting within the party later this year. At that time, the pulling effect of the policy will be realized.
The rebound from the beginning of May to the present is within our expectations, and the factors that have raised the price of copper have been basically reflected. For the market outlook, the short-term strength of domestic and foreign stock markets has improved market sentiment. Copper prices have risen with the US dollar index for a while, but as the US dollar index gradually moves closer to the 84 line, copper prices will continue to be under pressure. Investors should not be too optimism. In operation, it is recommended to take the short-term intervention of 52,400 yuan to leave the market and avoid the risk of rebound. Above the pressure of 53500 yuan - 54,000 yuan / ton, if the breakthrough is not effective, the empty order can be laid again.
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